UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Major employers are matching April’s 9.8% NLW hike for those earning a little above the minimum wage.
- The BoE Agents survey finds stronger pay growth than last year in consumer goods and services firms.
- We expect the NLW to boost private pay by 0.5%, with
upside risk, compared to the MPC’s 0.3% forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Brexit, demand uncertainty, staff shortages and high interest rates have held back business investment.
- All of these drags should ease, with staff shortages falling and the MPC likely to cut rates this summer.
- Firms’ investment intentions point to 1.5% year-over- year capex growth, an upside risk to our forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline and services inflation overshot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp and 0.2pp, respectively…
- …Reflecting stronger-than-expected underlying price pressures, not the impact of an early Easter.
- We still expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, but are very close to delaying that first cut to August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC will note the sharp employment drop, which suggests a risk the labour market is loosening quickly.
- But the headline jobs data are ropey, and surveys point to employment slowly rising.
- The MPC will focus more on stronger-than-expected pay, which suggests June is the earliest for a rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ben Bernanke’s review of BoE forecasting makes detailed modelling recommendations.
- But it gives wide latitude on how to use scenarios and does not recommend publishing a policy rate path.
- Nothing new for markets near term; in the medium term, changes are still open to debate.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
