UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook
- In one line: Fading consumer caution and renewed corporate risk appetite bode well for growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A mixed bag for the MPC as inflation slows but employment and business confidence surge.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: CBI orders and prices fall in July, but both should rebound in August.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote six-to-three to keep Bank Rate on hold at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- The MPC said its decision depends on GDP, services inflation and wages; all have exceeded its forecasts.
- It will be a hawkish cut if rate-setters do go ahead, with their guidance likely cautious about future easing.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The July PMI is consistent with Q3 GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- But surging new orders and future business expectations suggest the PMI will leap in August.
- Slowing output prices will comfort the MPC, but stronger hiring could keep wage growth elevated.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The wide current account deficit reflects elevated fuel import costs and weak investment income.
- Neither factor is likely to improve in the near future, so we expect the large current account deficit to persist.
- That will hold sterling back, as will the weakest international investment position in 37 years.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves hinted she would accept 5.5% public-sector pay rises this year.
- We also expect Ms. Reeves to raise government borrowing by £22B in 2029/30 in the Autumn Statement.
- Higher public-sector pay rises than expected will have only a minor effect on the interest rate outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Unrealistic spending plans mean the next government will borrow more and raise taxes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Colder weather deters shoppers but overall GDP will still jump in Q2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Imminent interest rate cuts boost consumers’ confidence.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The labour market is easing making an August rate cut a very close call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices defy high interest rates to rise strongly in May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic hotel prices drive June inflation surprise, but this is too strong for the MPC to cut in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The headlines from yesterday’s labour-market data will be music to the MPC’s ears…
- …They show slowing private-sector pay growth and signs of a continued gradual rise in unemployment.
- But the MPC must be careful; job growth is bouncing back, and AWE will likely be revised up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- June’s services inflation strength supports our call for the MPC to wait until September to cut rates.
- It’s a close call, as an erratic surge in hotel prices linked to music events boosted services inflation.
- We expect headline CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in July and 2.9% in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The OBR’s forthcoming Fiscal Sustainability Report will deem debt to be on an unsustainable path.
- The report will provide support to our call that the government will have to raise taxes.
- We think the report will place renewed focus on the need for a long-term plan for the public finances.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s speech last week signals the first rate cut is mostly data-independent.
- The hawks are shifting to argue for only gradual cuts, so back-to-back reductions will face stiff resistance.
- Mr. Pill suggested interest rates may need to remain persistently restrictive to keep inflation at the target.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Import prices signal a modest uptick in core goods CPI inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stronger-than-expected growth pressures the MPC to delay a rate cut until September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation holds steady in June, but will rise in the coming months as buyers return.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK