UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook
- CPI inflation likely fell to 1.9% in June, from 2.0% in May, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- We expect June CPI services inflation to exceed the MPC’s forecast by the same 42bp margin as in May.
- Rate-setters whose June vote was a close call will be happy with the same services inflation miss as May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 5K in June, while the unemployment rate should hold at 4.4%.
- We think private-sector AWE will rise 0.6% month-to-month in May, as April’s NLW hike feeds through.
- Pay beating the MPC’s 0.2% forecast would support our call that it will wait until September to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Volatile due to the general election, but pay growth seems to be rising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Labour wins a huge majority but will need to move fast with policy changes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Exit poll projects large Labour majority.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Still weak but registrations will pick up later this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Two steps forward, one step back.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: More encouragement for the MPC to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in May, as retail sales and manufacturing rebound.
- GDP is on track to increase 0.5% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- We expect growth to slow to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in H2 2024, still stronger than the MPC expects.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI fell in June, but we think this will not become a trend...
- …as businesses will look to ramp up activity if the election delivers a clear result.
- Output prices picked up in June, squeezing the MPC’s room for manoeuvre at its August meeting.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers are back in business.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rise as mortgage rates look set to fall again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 1.9% in June, from 2.0% in May, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Inflation will be lowered by falling food inflation and a slight easing in the pace of services price gains.
- We expect services inflation to exceed the MPC’s forecast by the same margin as in May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing continues to recover solidly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Money and credit data for May suggest consumption and investment will drive brisk GDP growth.
- Consumers’ reducing the amount they save to pre-Covid norms suggests they are willing to spend.
- Firms raised £10.4B of external finance in the past three months, above the £7.2B 2015-to-19 average.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: GDP growth rebounds as consumers find their mojo.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
WAGES AND SERVICES INFLATION REMAIN ELEVATED
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN SEPTEMBER, CAUTIOUSLY
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- All available polls suggest the Labour Party will win a large majority in the July 4 general election.
- Labour is proposing a credible strategy for boosting growth, but it will take time to bear fruit.
- Meanwhile, a slow-growing economy and implausible fiscal forecasts mean more borrowing and taxes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Official labour-market data remain unreliable despite statisticians’ attempts to boost the sample size.
- Surveys suggest labour-market loosening has slowed as GDP growth has rebounded.
- The decline in immigration removes one factor that has helped ease the labour market since 2022.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We upgraded our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 0.4% quarter-to-quarter, close to the MPC’s 0.5% call.
- Services inflation exceeded MPC forecasts by a widening margin in April and May.
- So we pushed back our first MPC rate cut to September, but we still expect two cuts by year-end.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
