UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Weekly Monitor
- In one line: Rain stopped play, sales will recover.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumer credit rebound backs up retail sales recovery in January.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Large bounce in the output index looks suspicious.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Mortgage rate falls do the trick.
Samuel TombsUK
- We remain optimistic about GDP this year, expecting quarter-to-quarter growth to average 0.3%.
- Energy-price falls will lower inflation below 2% in Q2, supporting the real wage outlook.
- We expect the MPC to lower rates by 75bp in 2024, but sticky services inflation could delay the first cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Forget the small drop; improving real wage growth will keep confidence rising.
Samuel TombsUK
- We estimate the Chancellor’s headroom for tax cuts will double to £25bn, mainly due to lower debt interest costs.
- The Chancellor will likely use most of that headroom for personal tax cuts and revving up the housing market.
- Markets will assume the next government will hike taxes to return government finances to a sustainable path.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Still consistent with GDP growth exceeding the MPC’s forecast, and a very gradual slowing in services CPI inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Borrowing in 2023/24 set to undershoot the OBR’s forecast by £10B, despite January’s smaller-than-expected surplus.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Further narrowing likely this year, reducing sterling’s sensitivity to the risk profile of foreign investors.
UK
In one line: Amid the monthly volatility, signs of a consumer-led recovery taking hold.
Samuel TombsUK
- Smooth out the huge noise in December and January retail sales and the trend is improving.
- Sales volumes rose 1.5% between October and January, as falling inflation boosted consumer spending power.
- In 2024, we expect real wages to rise the most in 17 years, propelling the UK out of recession.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: GDP will return to a rising path in 2024; the MPC needn’t panic.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Near-term momentum in services price rises is slowing, bolstering Q2 rate cut chances.
Samuel TombsUK
- We think the headline rate of CPI inflation rose merely to 4.1% in January, from 4.0% in December...
- ...But services inflation likely leapt by 0.5pp to 6.9%; January 2023’s fall in the catering CPI likely wasn’t repeated.
- Our services inflation forecast exceeds the MPC’s, but it would still point to slowing near-term momentum.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Further evidence to support our view of a material recovery in house prices this year.
UK
- In one line: Strengthening recovery will allow the MPC to take its time.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Optimism improving as lower borrowing costs start to underpin demand.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Downward revision to unemployment rate increases pressure on the MPC to wait.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Very weak, but should now recover in line with consumers' confidence.
UK
