UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Daily Monitor
- We think unchanged GDP month-to-month in April signals a strong underlying trend.
- GDP held steady despite erratic and rain-disrupted sectors slicing 0.4pp off month-to-month growth.
- We upgrade our growth forecast to 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, above the MPC’s 0.2% call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The labour market appears to be easing gradually, with employment likely flat and unemployment rising.
- Slowing underlying pay momentum is being masked by the temporary boost from April’s NLW hike.
- A gradually easing labour market, and falling inflation, will allow the MPC to cut Bank Rate in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April, 0.1pp above the MPC forecast.
- We estimate that half of the April services inflation surprise was a one-off that will drop out in May.
- The MPC can still cut Bank Rate in August as long as inflation keeps slowing, but it will be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think GDP fell 0.2% month-to-month in April, as wet weather reduced consumer spending.
- We still expect 0.3% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q2, as retail sales should bounce back in May…
- ...Business surveys, moreover, suggest output growth remains robust.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The final composite PMI for May points to 0.25% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Firms are responding to rising output by hiring, suggesting official employment data will rebound soon.
- The PMI indicates services inflation will slow ahead of the MPC’s August interest rate decision.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
- Almost all the slowdown comes from core goods and services, as large base effects reduce annual inflation.
- We expect services inflation to slow but still exceed the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in May and April’s fall to be revised close to no change.
- We think private-sector AWE will leap 0.8% month-to-month in April as the NLW hike feeds through.
- Risks are skewed to an even stronger wage print, challenging our call that the MPC will cut rates in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The National Living Wage hike will push private-sector regular pay to a solid 0.8% month-to-month April rise.
- But survey indicators continue to signal gradually slowing wage growth, as recruitment difficulties ease.
- Average weekly earnings growth should slow decisively in H2 2024 as the NLW distortions fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-to-quarter for the rest of the year, after the 0.6% increase in Q1.
- Sticky services prices and energy effects mean we see inflation rising to 2.8% by Q4 2024.
- We now expect the first Bank Rate cut in August, then once per quarter thereafter.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Opinion polls differ widely, but they all suggest Labour will win a large majority in the July 4 general election.
- PM Sunak’s attempts to convert undecided older voters may be hurt by his poor approval ratings.
- The BRC Shop Price Index drives up our May CPI inflation forecast to 2.1%, from 2.0% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The flash PMI suggests services CPI inflation will resume its decline after barely falling in April.
- The PMI suggests growth is slowing to a more comfortable 0.3% quarter-to-quarter pace too.
- So, the MPC can cut interest rates in August, even if April inflation ended the chances of a June reduction.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in August, versus June previously, following strong April inflation.
- Services inflation barely slowed in April and was 0.4pp stronger than the MPC expected.
- The services strength was widespread and not concentrated in a handful of erratic items.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Polls suggest the Labour Party will win the general election that must be held by January 2025.
- The party plans supply-side boosting initiatives, from freeing planning rules to ‘crowding in’ investment.
- Those policies pose modest upside risk to current UK potential growth of around 1.5% per year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect two-year gilt yields to fall to 3.9% by end- 2024 as the MPC cuts rates.
- But high government refinancing and BoE gilt sales limit the fall in 10-year gilt yields to 4.0% at end-2024.
- Upside risks remain from inflation persistence and implausibly low public-spending forecasts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, as services inflation undershoots its forecasts.
- The MPC’s words in any case signal the precise path of data is not that important for the first rate cut...
- ... Data may matter more for subsequent changes, so robust wage growth will mean one cut per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We see the MPC continuing quantitative tightening at its current £100B-per-year pace in 2024/25.
- The MPC has said explicitly that it does not see rate cuts and QT as contradictory.
- Reserves will not reach ‘equilibrium’ until 2026, even with QT at a £100B-per-year pace.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Sharply falling LFS employment suggests the labour market is easing quickly.
- But those data are misleading, and PAYE jobs will be revised up; the labour market is easing gradually.
- The MPC needs to brace for another strong pay gain in April, but will likely cut in June nonetheless.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in April, from 3.2% in March, 0.1pp lower than the MPC forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility-price-cap cut as well as slowing goods and food inflation chop 95bp off inflation.
- We expect services inflation to decline to 5.4% in April, as indexed price rises are lower than in 2023.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A triple whammy of changes from the MPC suggests a June rate cut is more likely than not.
- Two rate-setters voted for a cut, and MPC forecasts indicate three Bank Rate reductions this year.
- The MPC’s guidance signals that pay settlements data over the next two months could seal the deal.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in April, and March’s fall to be revised smaller.
- The jobless rate should rise to 4.3%, and private-sector regular pay will gain 0.4% month-to-month.
- Wages will likely beat the MPC’s forecast but preserve the picture of a gradually easing labour market.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK