Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor

4 August 2025 UK Monitor Forecast review: steady growth and sticky inflation

  • Underlying growth is fine, helped by consumers; we look for GDP to grow by 1.2% in both 2025 and 2026.
  • Payroll falls are a risk, but we think they exaggerate job losses, and in any case vacancies are stabilising.
  • We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, so the MPC will have to pause after it cuts in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

1 August 2025 UK Monitor Setting probabilities around our Bank Rate forecast

  • Our central Bank Rate forecast is hawkish, assuming only one more cut this year and none next year.
  • A probability-weighted average of three scenarios is more dovish but still above the market in 2026.
  • Continued sharp payroll falls or easing inflation expectations would shift us to more dovish scenarios. 
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
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U.K. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,