Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, September 2024

  • In one line: The PMI surges as lower borrowing costs and optimism boost activity.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, September 2024

  • In one line: 

    Private sales fall again on an annual basis, but consumer confidence still points to an upturn.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, September 2024

  • In one line: Recruitment difficulties ease but inflation and wage growth prove stubbornly elevated.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, September 2024

  • In one line: The PMI falls, but it will rebound after the Budget.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

4 October 2024 UK Monitor The PMI falls, but it will rebound after the Budget

  • The PMI fell in September as firms paused work in anticipation of the upcoming budget.
  • It is still signalling quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.4%, however.
  • BoE Governor Bailey’s talk of ‘aggressive’ rate cuts leaves us close to adding a December reduction.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

3 October 2024 UK Monitor GDP likely grew 0.2% month-to-month in August

  • We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in August, as retail sales grow and doctors’ strikes end.
  • Manufacturing output should also rebound from erratic weakness in July.
  • We look for Q3 growth of 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, but GDP revisions pose a downside risk.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, September 2024

  • In one line: The MPC will cut gradually, next in November and then in February.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, September 2024

  • In one line: The PMI dips in September on Budget uncertainty, but output growth remains strong.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

2 October 2024 UK Monitor CPI preview: CPI inflation to fall to 1.9% in September

  • Sharply falling motor fuel prices will drag down CPI inflation to 1.9% in September, from 2.2% in August.
  • Core goods inflation should hold at 0.3% year-over-year, but BRC Shop Prices pose a downside risk.
  • We expect core and services inflation close to theMPC’s August Monetary Policy Report forecast.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK National Accounts, Q2 2024

  • In one line: Q2 GDP growth revised down but remains above potential, while downward saving rate revisions point to slightly less cautious consumers.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

1 October 2024 UK Monitor GDP will keep rising faster than potential as consumers spend

  • Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 0.5% quarter-to-quarter, but the mix of growth is better…
  • …Business capex growth was revised up and cuts to the saving rate signal less cautious consumers.
  • Surging mortgage approvals show consumers are responding quickly to the MPC’s interest rate cut.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, August 2024

  • In one line: MPC interest rate cuts are boosting the housing market and corporate borrowing.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

30 September 2024 UK Monitor Forecast review: A slow and steady approach needed as CPI to rise

  • We have nudged down our Q3 GDP growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter after GDP flatlined in July.
  • We lift our 2025 inflation forecast as we add in above inflation duty hikes and private school fee rises.
  • We expect a 25bp rate cut in November and three more in 2025, as the MPC guides to “gradual cuts”.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

27 September 2024 UK Monitor Policy rules support a gradual approach to reducing Bank Rate

  • A suite of Taylor rules forecasts Bank Rate between 3.4% and 4.3% at the end of 2025.
  • These forecasts are based on MPC inflation and growth projections, which we think are too low.
  • Policy rules that are more robust to uncertainty about the neutral rate suggest more gradual cuts.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

September 2024 - U.K. Housing Watch

HOUSE-PRICE RECOVERY FALTERS IN JULY, BUT IT’S A BLIP...

  • ...PRICE INFLATION WILL ACCELERATE TO 4.5% IN DECEMBER

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

26 September 2024 UK Monitor CPI inflation will be boosted by duties and school fees

  • A Chancellor scrabbling for tax revenue will likely turn to alcohol and tobacco duty hikes.
  • We expect Ms. Reeves to raise tobacco duty—by 4% above RPI inflation—and alcohol duty in December.
  • Our forecasts include a 10% private-school fee hike, split September 2024, January and September 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, September 2024

  • In one line: Growth will bounce back but easing inflation will lead the MPC to cut rates in November.

Samuel TombsUK

25 September 2024 UK Monitor House price inflation will accelerate as the MPC cuts interest rates

  • We expect house price inflation to accelerate to 4.5% year-over-year in December.
  • MPC rate cuts, solid wage growth and low unemployment will drive that housing rebound.
  • Forward-looking indicators suggest upside risk; they point to 6% year-over-year house price gains.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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