UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: CBI points to struggling manufacturing but it is volatile, watch the stronger PMI instead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales flattered by the weather, but the trend is up as real wage gains drive stronger spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Government borrowing overshoot widens, so the Chancellor will raise taxes and change the debt rule in the Budget.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tax hike fears cut consumers’ confidence, but we expect it to rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The composite PMI decline and drop in output price inflation raise the potential for faster rate cuts.
- But the PMI remains consistent with 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth…
- ...While still-strong forward-looking sub-balances suggest the headline PMI will rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect payback for the 1.0% month-to-month August gain in retail sales, boosted by warm weather.
- But look through the volatile sector detail, and retail sales volumes are trending up as real wages rise.
- Consumer confidence, likely depressed by rising inflation expectations, poses a downside risk.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC kept Bank Rate on hold, as expected, but the 8-to-1 vote was less dovish than expected.
- The MPC signalled a gradual rate-cutting cycle, which suggests to us one cut per quarter.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp in November and again in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices drop in July but should rebound as interest rates fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Services inflation rebounds close to the MPC’s forecast, keeping it on track to hold rates tomorrow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Underlying services inflation pressures continue to ease, so the MPC will cut rates again this year.
- But August’s CPI inflation gives the MPC little reason to rush to cut today; it will wait until November.
- Core CPI inflation jumped to 3.6% in August, which we think was close to the MPC’s expectation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumer confidence has provided a reliable signal of consumer spending for 50 years.
- Confidence points to consumption strengthening and unemployment falling.
- Consumers’ saving intentions are high but they provide little useful signal about actual saving.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
- Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
- Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Better anchored inflation expectations have helped deliver a more benign disinflation than feared.
- But the MPC should retain some caution as long-run household inflation expectations are a little elevated...
- …satisfaction in the BoE remains low and households are more attentive to inflation than before Covid.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation accelerates immediately after MPC rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: High energy costs will keep the trade deficit wide for the foreseeable future.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:July GDP was dragged down by erratic sectors, it will rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 to keep Bank Rate on hold at next week’s policy meeting.
- Rate-setters will note slowing inflation supports faster cuts but a solid labour market suggests caution.
- The MPC will signal further rate cuts are likely, but that policy will need to stay sufficiently restrictive.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A second consecutive month of unchanged GDP gives little reason for worry.
- GDP was depressed by erratic sectors; they will rebound, and surveys point to robust growth.
- So, the MPC will still wait until November to cut interest rates again despite the downside GDP surprise.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Encouraging wage slowdown keeps the MPC on track to cut rates again in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Job growth slowed in H1, but surveys suggest hiring is improving, while redundancies remain low.
- Pay growth continues to ease, but less than AWE shows, and it remains too high for comfort.
- The labour market is loosening gradually but is far from collapsing; the MPC can afford to wait.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
