UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, May 2025

• In one line: Manufacturing is past the worst as tariff uncertainty fades.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, May 2025

• In one line: House prices rebound in May, but the stamp-duty-unwind has more room to run.

3 June 2025 UK Monitor Consumers are spending rather than saving

• Consumers are back to spending rather than saving, which should keep GDP growth ticking along.
• Households seem to be reducing saving, and borrowing on credit cards to support spending.
• Manufacturing is past the worst, and so far we see little sign of trade diversion cutting goods inflation.

2 June 2025 UK Monitor GDP likely fell 0.1% month-to-month in April

• We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in April, as tariff front-running unwinds.
• We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2, above the MPC’s projection, 0.1%.
• A resilient economy is supporting our call for just one more 25bp cut to Bank Rate this year.

May 2025- UK Chartbook

STRONG MOMENTUM, ELEVATED INFLATION...

• …BACK TO ONLY ONE MORE RATE CUT THIS YEAR