UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Higher core goods and services inflation in August will raise CPI inflation to 2.3%, from 2.2% in July.
- Goods inflation should tick up as used car prices rise and furniture prices rebound from July discounts.
- We look for CPI inflation to be 0.1pp less than the MPC expects, and services 0.2pp lower.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- EZ inflation fell to its lowest since July 2021 in August, marginally above the ECB’s target...
- ...The Bank will find it hard to justify its current restrictive stance, especially with wage growth easing.
- We think a September rate cut is more likely than not and keep our October cut in too, for now.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Consumers and firms seem gradually to be shifting behaviour in response to expected interest rate cuts.
- Households raised liquid assets by the least in 11 months, and mortgage approvals jumped.
- Smoothing through volatility, corporates have been raising net external finance since March.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ofgem announced a 9.5% utility price-cap increase for October, fractionally lower than we expected.
- Accordingly, we edge down our December CPI inflation forecast to 2.7%, from 2.8% previously.
- Wholesale energy futures prices and geopolitical risk point to further utility-bill hikes in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Gilt yields have fallen sharply at the short end of the curve since the MPC cut rates in August.
- But we make minimal changes to our gilt yield forecasts, as the fundamental drivers are unchanged.
- The market continues to function well, and buyers have been attracted back to gilts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- GDP growth for Q2 was below the MPC’s projection, but we estimate it is trending above potential.
- CPI services inflation was below the market consensus in July, for only the second time this year.
- We think these data do not warrant another rate cut in September; the next will come in November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The official ONS measure of house prices has risen above its 2022 peak and will likely keep gaining...
- ...as private-sector house price indices have returned to growth, and mortgage interest rates are falling.
- We expect mortgage approvals for house purchase to rise to 63K in July.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: CBI orders and prices rebound as expected in August.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI signals faster growth and slower inflation, but the employment balances will worry the MPC.
Samuel TombsUK
- The PMI is now pointing to Q3 GDP rising by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, below the MPC’s forecast.
- Falling inflation signalled by the August PMI as both input and output price balances drop.
- Firms are confident to hire again; the MPC will be wary of employment growth in a tight labour market.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to agree in September that QT will continue at a £100B-a-year pace from October.
- The BoE has welcomed increased use of its short-term repo facility as part of a strategic shift…
- ...to a demand-driven reserves system, while small changes to active QT would be fine-tuning.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
REBOUNDING GROWTH AND SLOWLY EASING WAGES
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN NOVEMBER AND THREE TIMES IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Spending is already overshooting Budget forecasts, government borrowing will exceed the Budget forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
HOUSE-PRICE RECOVERY STRENGTHENING...
...WE EXPECT 4.5% HOUSE-PRICE INFLATION IN 2024
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The ONS Blue Book revisions raised the level of GDP in Q4 2022 by 0.8%.
- Statistician’s will publish full revisions up to the latest data in Q2 2024 on September 30.
- Revisions to growth two years ago will have little effect on monetary or fiscal policy.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC has shifted its focus away from inflation and wages to broader economic scenarios.
- Even rate-setters voting for an August cut placed considerable weight on the more hawkish scenario.
- Reduced data-sensitivity and the scenarios suggest gradual rate cuts, with the next one in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Retail sales volumes gained 0.5% month-to-month in July but were depressed by a large seasonal factor.
- We estimate that retail sales volumes are trending up at a 2.5% month-to-month annualised pace.
- Surveys and consumer confidence signal improving retail sales, while rate cuts will give a boost.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Trade deficit weighed down by erratics, non-monetary gold and natural gas prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Solid GDP growth suggests the MPC can wait until November to cut rates again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Weaker inflation helps the case for rate cuts, but airfares and hotel prices will rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
