UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Payroll-tax hikes are driving growth down and inflation up to a greater extent than we expected.
- We cut our 2025 GDP forecast to 1.1% year-over-year, from 1.3%, but raise inflation by 10bp to 3.1%.
- We retain our long-held call for three cuts to Bank Rate in 2025, with the first coming on Thursday.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Easing consumer saving should support demand, but tax hikes hit business investment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
PAYROLL TAXES CUT GROWTH AND BOOST INFLATION
- …THE MPC WILL BE ABLE TO CUT RATES THREE TIMES IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
SURVEYS SIGNAL A BUOYANT HOUSING MARKET...
- ...WE FORECAST PRICES TO RISE 4% IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Little sign of consumer gloom in the money and credit data, as households cut back on saving…
- ...Consumers cut real liquid assets by £0.3B month-to-month in December, and mortgage approvals rose.
- Payroll-tax hikes hit capex, however, with corporate net external finance falling in December.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp next week, with an eight-to-one vote in favour.
- The MPC is likely to raise near-term inflation forecasts above 3.0% but cut two-year-ahead projections a bit.
- The MPC will probably agree implicitly with a market curve that prices around three rate cuts in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- House price inflation will accelerate after posting a gain of just 0.1% month-to-month in November.
- Forward-looking indicators point to house price inflation reaching 5% year-over-year in the spring…
- …But sticky borrowing costs and tax changes will cap annual growth in house prices at 4% in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence drops again in January as risks to the growth outlook build.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing orders bounce back, but activity remains chronically weak.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes cut jobs but raise inflation so the MPC will have to plot a middle course of cautious cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Average earnings growth was surprisingly strong in November, even accounting for statistical noise.
- PAYE signals a 4.8% annualised month-to-month gain in private-sector ex-bonus AWE in December 2024.
- Slowing settlements are consistent with private AWE growth easing to 4.0% in Q4 2025, matching our call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Both the PMI output growth and output price balances surprised to the upside in January.
- The MPC will cut rates in February, but inflation pressure means only three rate cuts in total this year.
- Payroll falls pose a downside risk to growth, but the ONS likely will revise up the December drop.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Jobs market is loosening gradually, but strong wage growth is a block to quick MPC rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Public sector borrowing exceeded the OBR’s latest forecasts in December.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- MPC members are giving formal speeches less frequently now than before Covid.
- There is evidence that they retreated even further from communicating when inflation surged in 2022.
- We think this has made their reaction function more difficult to understand and is impacting markets.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Monthly insolvencies have fallen back towards their pre-pandemic trend.
- The insolvency rate, which controls for the size of the economy, is almost at pre-pandemic levels.
- Even modest GDP growth will keep a lid on insolvency growth in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The labour market is stronger than payrolls show; revisions should raise December’s drop to no change.
- Redundancies remain low and jobless claims show little sign of a sharp labour-market downturn.
- The MPC will ease in February, but strong wage growth blocks rapid interest rate reductions this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Disappointing retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall in Q4, so the MPC will definitely cut rates in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The weight of services in the CPI is likely to rise slightly in 2025, while the weight of goods should fall.
- Weight changes will be small compared to last years’ but still add 11bp to our inflation forecast…
- …because a smaller than usual weight of airfares in January reduces the impact of New Year price falls.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We wobbled on our call for three rate cuts this year, but soft growth keeps us on track.
- GDP is now trending down slightly, and disappointing retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall in Q4.
- Payrolls next week will show whether employment really tanked in December, as the PMI signalled.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
