Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, May 2025

  • In one line: Construction PMI should improve only slowly as sentiment remains weak.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, May 2025

  • In one line: Falling interest rates and a healthy consumer will support car registrations.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, May 2025

  • In one line: Growth has been steady, if unspectacular, once we account for the PMI’s excess sensitivity to uncertainty.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

6 June 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: ONS error leaves our May call close to rounding to 3.3%

  • The ONS overstated April CPI by 0.1pp because of an error in Vehicle Duty; this will be corrected in May CPI.
  • We adjust our forecasts only fractionally because we had assumed a good chance that VED was wrong.
  • Strong goods prices mean inflation should slow only to 3.4% in May, from the erroneous 3.5% in April.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

5 June 2025 UK Monitor MPC far too pessimistic about underlying GDP growth

  • The May PMI shows UK growth still weak, but recovering as April’s tariff panic fades.
  • GDP growth usually far exceeds the PMI steer when uncertainty is high; we look for 0.3% q/q growth in Q2.
  • Services firms squeezing margins holds out the hope of inflation easing, but we think it’s just a blip.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

4 June 2025 UK Monitor Labour market preview: earnings growth slowing, payrolls troughing

  • We expect the initial estimate of May payrolls to show a 26K month-to-month decline.
  • LFS unemployment will likely tick up to 4.6% in April, and LFS employment should gain 48K.
  • We expect year-over-year whole-economy AWE ex-bonus growth to fall to 5.3% in April, from 5.6%.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, April 2025

  • In one line: Falling saving and more borrowing supporting consumption should keep GDP growth ticking along despite a drag from investment. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, May 2025

  • In one line: Manufacturing is past the worst as tariff uncertainty fades.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, May 2025

  • In one line: House prices rebound in May, but the stamp-duty-unwind has more room to run.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

3 June 2025 UK Monitor Consumers are spending rather than saving

  • Consumers are back to spending rather than saving, which should keep GDP growth ticking along.
  • Households seem to be reducing saving, and borrowing on credit cards to support spending.
  • Manufacturing is past the worst, and so far we see little sign of trade diversion cutting goods inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

2 June 2025 UK Monitor GDP likely fell 0.1% month-to-month in April

  • We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in April, as tariff front-running unwinds.
  • We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2, above the MPC’s projection, 0.1%.
  • A resilient economy is supporting our call for just one more 25bp cut to Bank Rate this year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

May 2025- UK Chartbook

STRONG MOMENTUM, ELEVATED INFLATION...

  • …BACK TO ONLY ONE MORE RATE CUT THIS YEAR

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

30 May 2025 UK Monitor April administered-price hikes are far from just a one off

  • Our early calculations suggest CPI inflation will fall only slightly in May, to 3.4%.
  • Clothes, computer games, hotel prices and food should mostly offset a fall in travel prices.
  • Duty hikes scheduled for 2026 will support headline inflation; we expect more duty hikes to be announced.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

29 May 2025 UK Monitor Forecast review: stronger growth and sticky inflation take away a cut

  • The tariff shock is fading and Q1 GDP beat consensus, so we raise our 2025 growth forecast to 1.3%.
  • Inflation will hover around 3.4% for the rest of 2025, and drop below 3.0% again only next April.
  • Easing uncertainty, elevated inflation and growth momentum mean just one more rate cut in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, April 2025

  • In one line:Q2 GDP is shaping up for a solid gain as retail sales roar into the spring, defying rocketing economic uncertainty.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, May 2025

  • In one line: Uncertainty driven rebound in consumers' confidence points to continued solid retail spending growth.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, May 2025

  • In one line: PMI rebounds as uncertainty fades, and drop in price balances helps the MPC.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, April 2025

  • In one line:Borrowing likely overshot the OBR’s projections in April, we still expect tax rises by the end of the year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, May 2025

  • In one line: Manufacturing activity remains weak according to the CBI, it will remain so for some time to come.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

28 May 2025 UK Monitor The MPC will hit neutral soon if it keeps cutting Bank Rate

  • Our high neutral rate estimate of 3.75%-4.0% is one reason we expect only one more MPC rate cut.
  • Elevated inflation expectations, especially for consumers, point to a high neutral rate.
  • Slowing disinflation in 2025 also suggests that Bank Rate is only modestly restrictive now.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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