UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- We cut our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.1% quarter-to-quarter after the disappointing December PMI.
- But the Q4 BCC survey indicates employment is holding up better than the disastrous PMI implies.
- The MPC will wait for the hard data to roll in before giving firmer guidance on interest rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Nationwide’s house price index rises in December to cap a recovery in the housing market in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The manufacturing PMI drops in December as demand weakens and sentiment sours.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We cut our Q4 growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, following a string of weak data.
- The labour market remains tight, and wage growth is still running above target-consistent levels.
- The MPC will proceed cautiously and cut three times in 2025: in February, May and November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Q3 GDP growth revised down to zero, but we expect a rebound and stronger growth in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The Nationwide house price index for December signals continued momentum in the housing market.
- Official house price inflation will rise to 4% year-over-year in December, with upside risks to that call.
- Sticky borrowing costs will keep annual house price inflation at 4% in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
HOUSE PRICES REBOUND IN OCTOBER...
- ...AND HOUSE PRICE INFLATION WILL HIT 4% IN DECEMBER...
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Public sector borrowing likely marginally below October Budget forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales bounce back in November but disappoint relative to consensus.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Sterling had a strong year against a basket of major currencies; it will hold these levels in 2025.
- Favourable interest rate differentials between the UK and major peers will support the GBP.
- Pantheon’s interest rate calls collectively imply cable at 1.27 and GBPEUR at 1.21 at end-2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Dovish vote but cautious majority; February rate cut odds-on but only gradual interest rate reductions after.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Three MPC members supporting an immediate rate cut keeps a February reduction odds-on…
- ...But it is not a dead cert, as the cautious MPC minutes give rate-setters the option to skip February.
- MPC members went for flexibility, eschewing any commitment to cutting at specific meetings.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A tobacco duty hike combined with base effects to lift headline CPI inflation to 2.6% in December.
- Tax hikes, fading energy deflation and stubborn services prices will raise CPI inflation to 3.1% in April.
- The MPC has to balance weak output against rising inflation; we look for three 25bp rate cuts in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Output and inflation head in opposite directions, leaving the MPC with a difficult trade-off.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Rebounding house prices show buyers are unfazed by stabilising mortgage rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Duties and base effects drive up CPI inflation, which will rise to 3.1% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
STAGFLATIONARY TAXES = GRADUAL RATE CUTS...
- …BUT SOURING SENTIMENT MAY FORCE FASTER ACTION
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Higher pay growth and better jobs gains than the surveys will keep the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Job growth has stalled but is still holding up better than tanking business surveys of hiring intentions.
- Private pay growth is likely to far exceed the MPC’s forecast of 5.1% year-over-year in Q4.
- A renewed trade-off between supporting output and fighting inflation will keep the MPC cutting cautiously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The headline trade deficit widens in October as erratics weigh on the headline balance.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
