Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, July 2024

  • In one line: Imminent interest rate cuts boost consumers’ confidence.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

22 July 2024 UK Monitor Retail sales volume growth will improve in H2 2024

  • Cooler weather in June led to a 1.2% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes.
  • We think the ONS data exaggerate the drop in retail sales because surveys suggest a stronger reading.
  • The new government will likely borrow £10B-to-£20B a year more and raise taxes to fund more spending.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, May / June 2024

  • In one line: The labour market is easing making an August rate cut a very close call.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, May

  • In one line: House prices defy high interest rates to rise strongly in May.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, June 2024

  • In one line: Erratic hotel prices drive June inflation surprise, but this is too strong for the MPC to cut in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

19 July 2024 UK Monitor The MPC will like slowing wages but should watch jobs and revisions

  • The headlines from yesterday’s labour-market data will be music to the MPC’s ears…
  • …They show slowing private-sector pay growth and signs of a continued gradual rise in unemployment.
  • But the MPC must be careful; job growth is bouncing back, and AWE will likely be revised up.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

18 July 2024 UK Monitor Services inflation too strong for the MPC to cut rates in August

  • June’s services inflation strength supports our call for the MPC to wait until September to cut rates.
  • It’s a close call, as an erratic surge in hotel prices linked to music events boosted services inflation.
  • We expect headline CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in July and 2.9% in November.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 July 2024 UK Monitor Debt still on an unsustainable path in the long run

  • The OBR’s forthcoming Fiscal Sustainability Report will deem debt to be on an unsustainable path.
  • The report will provide support to our call that the government will have to raise taxes.
  • We think the report will place renewed focus on the need for a long-term plan for the public finances.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

16 July 2024 UK Monitor MPC will cut rates only gradually once it starts

  • BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s speech last week signals the first rate cut is mostly data-independent.
  • The hawks are shifting to argue for only gradual cuts, so back-to-back reductions will face stiff resistance.
  • Mr. Pill suggested interest rates may need to remain persistently restrictive to keep inflation at the target.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, May 2024

  • In one line: Import prices signal a modest uptick in core goods CPI inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

15 July 2024 UK Monitor GDP will be boosted by strong real income and falling saving

  • We raise our forecast for year-over-year GDP growth in 2025 to 1.6%, from 1.4% previously.
  • Strong GDP growth so far this year suggests that the drag from interest rate hikes is fading.
  • A 3.2% rise in household real income in 2024 will power GDP gains of 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in H2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GDP May 2024

  • In one line: Stronger-than-expected growth pressures the MPC to delay a rate cut until September.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, June 2024

  • In one line: House price inflation holds steady in June, but will rise in the coming months as buyers return.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

12 July 2024 UK Monitor GDP growth will exceed the MPC's forecasts, again, in Q2

  • Output rose 0.4% month-to-month in May, putting GDP 1.5% higher than at the start of the year.
  • We raise our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% quarter-to-quarter and see upside risk.
  • Yesterday’s release supports our call for the MPC to wait until September to cut Bank Rate.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

11 July 2024 UK Monitor Insolvencies and liquidations should fall as GDP grows

  • Company insolvencies surged to a record high in 2023, but that exaggerates corporate distress.
  • The liquidation rate remains far from its peak and rose mainly due to catch-up after a hiatus in 2020. 
  • We expect insolvencies to fall as GDP growth rebounds and the MPC begins cutting Bank Rate.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, June 2024

  • In one line: Bad weather holds back retail sales again.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

10 July 2024 UK Monitor CPI preview: services inflation likely to outstrip MPC's forecast

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 1.9% in June, from 2.0% in May, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
  • We expect June CPI services inflation to exceed the MPC’s forecast by the same 42bp margin as in May.
  • Rate-setters whose June vote was a close call will be happy with the same services inflation miss as May.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

9 July 2024 UK Monitor Labour-market preview: another strong wage gain in May

  • We expect PAYE employment to rise 5K in June, while the unemployment rate should hold at 4.4%.
  • We think private-sector AWE will rise 0.6% month-to-month in May, as April’s NLW hike feeds through.
  • Pay beating the MPC’s 0.2% forecast would support our call that it will wait until September to cut rates.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, June 2024

  • In one line: Volatile due to the general election, but pay growth seems to be rising.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. General Election Results, July 2024

  • In one line: Labour wins a huge majority but will need to move fast with policy changes.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,