UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Tobacco duties and base effects will push up CPI inflation to 2.6% in November, from 2.3% in October.
- We expect energy and food to add 14bp to inflation, and core goods another 15bp, compared to October.
- CPI inflation 0.2pp higher than the MPC’s forecastwould rule out a December rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Budget and geopolitics hit manufacturing sentiment in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices bounce back after pre-Budget pause.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tax hike fears lead households to dispose of assets and rush to complete house purchases.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
MARKET REPRICES FOR FEWER RATE CUTS...
- ...AND WE NOW SEE HOUSE PRICES RISING BY 4% IN DECEMBER
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We trim our Q4 growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, after weak GDP and the fall in the PMI.
- Unemployment is likely trending up gradually and wage growth is slowing.
- But services inflation and wage growth remain too strong, so the MPC will cut only gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We cut our house price inflation forecast to 4.0% year-over-year in December 2024, from 4.5%...
- ...as higher market interest rate expectations mean mortgage rates will stabilise at current levels.
- The LFS reweighting will raise employment levels but have only a small effect on the employment rate.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A rash of MPC-speak in the past two weeks suggests broad agreement on “gradual” rate cuts.
- The MPC will wait to see pay settlements in the New Year before cutting again and firming guidance.
- We expect three 25bp cuts in 2025, with risk biased to more as a cautious MPC may need to catch up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
REBOUNDING GROWTH AND SLOWLY EASING WAGES
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN NOVEMBER AND THREE TIMES IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The BRC Shop Price Index suggests slightly slower food inflation but a jump in core goods in November.
- So we expect headline CPI inflation to rise to 2.6% year-over-year in November from 2.3% in October.
- The CBI retailing survey is useless, other data sources are stronger, retail sales will rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Business and public services output drove the H1 GDP surge, and Q3 slowdown.
- Idiosyncratic factors and erratic professional services data explain weaker Q3 business services growth.
- Professional services should help Q4 GDP growth improve as those erratic factors unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales will rebound after budget uncertainty, mild weather and a calendar quirk cut October volumes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: PMI at a 13-month low makes a February rate cut a slam dunk, but the MPC will stay on hold in December.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence recovers in November, but was held back by rising inflation and market interest rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI at a 13-month low signals stalling GDP growth, as the Budget hits sentiment.
- Stubborn PMI price pressures will keep the MPC on alert; it will wait till February to cut rates again.
- Retail sales will rebound after warmer weather and a calendar quirk exaggerated the drop in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Surging debt interest costs raise borrowing, leaving the Chancellor with little headroom.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradually slowing underlying inflation means only gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall marginally in September but the trend remains up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ballooning debt interest costs pushed public sector borrowing higher in October.
- The gilt yield rise since the Budget would almost wipe out the headroom against the fiscal rules.
- Ms. Reeves will need to raise taxes or cut spending if market interest rates remain at current levels.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ofgem’s 9.5% utility price cap hike raised CPI inflation above the MPC’s 2% target in October.
- CPI inflation should rise to 2.6% in November and 3.0% next April, on duty hikes and energy prices…
- ...ruling out a December rate cut; but a February rate cut is likely as underlying services inflation slows.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
