UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Mr. Trump’s promise of higher tariffs and tax cuts should prove stagflationary for the UK.
- The MPC will focus on the inflation boost, because inflation expectations are elevated.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, as utility prices increase.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The headline composite PMI fell in October, and is consistent with 0.2% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Uncertainty around the Budget, energy price rises and the external environment weakened sentiment.
- We think the PMI will rebound, as the MPC cuts rates, while Budget uncertainty has faded.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The official house price index rebounded in August, rising 1.0% month-to-month.
- The Chancellor’s stimulatory Budget will prevent mortgage rates from falling much further.
- But the drop in mortgage rates thus far means house prices should gain 4.5% year-over-year in December.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We cut our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 0.2% from 0.3% previously, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Ms. Reeves’ Budget will keep the MPC from easing at back-to-back meetings this year.
- We expect four 25bp cuts from rate-setters in 2025, at a pace of one per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expectations of further rate cuts continue to lift the housing market and corporate borrowing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to cut Bank Rate by 25bp at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- Growth, inflation and crucially CPI services inflation have undershot rate-setters’ expectations.
- The MPC will open the option of consecutive cuts, but higher forecast inflation will keep it cautious.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The Chancellor used most of the extra borrowing capacity permitted by her new rules to spend more now.
- This loosening, and the extra labour costs for firms, will lift inflation, forcing the MPC to ease slowly.
- Headroom is tiny, so taxes might rise again if growth flags or interest rates exceed the OBR’s forecast.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Households’ liquid assets increased in September, but we think consumers are content at current levels.
- Lump-sum repayments are falling as borrowing costs tick down, and consumer caution remains low.
- Mortgage approvals have grown strongly, reaching their highest level since August 2022.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The number of company insolvencies is high, but insolvency rates are only a little elevated.
- Rising energy and food costs boosted insolvencies post-Covid; both shocks fading is easing distress.
- Insolvencies will keep falling as the economy grows and borrowing costs decrease.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
SLOWLY EASING INFLATION AND A LOOSER BUDGET...
- …THE MPC WILL CUT RATES ONCE PER QUARTER
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: CBI rebounds in October but still signals a weak manufacturing sector as Budget uncertainty takes a toll.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence falls on Budget, clarity on October 30 will help sentiment recover.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI signals slowing growth and stubborn services inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- Rachel Reeves’ loosening of fiscal rules will likely mean £24B per year more borrowing for investment.
- Markets will likely still see the new fiscal rules as credible, avoiding a ‘Liz Truss’ moment...
- ...as Chancellor Reeves’ focus on the current budget deficit shows commitment to sustainable policy.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The composite PMI fell to an 11-month low, as Budget uncertainty hit firms.
- The forward-looking balances suggest that the PMI will rebound in November.
- The PMI indicates that inflation is stubborn and firms expanded margins more quickly in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- UK business investment has flatlined for eight years, but an upturn seems to be underway.
- Firms are borrowing again as interest rates fall, and CFOs report the cost of credit is easing.
- Investment intentions signal 2.9% capex growth year-over-year in Q3.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Government borrowing overshoots OBR forecast again, Ms. Reeves will raise planned taxes, spending and borrowing in her October 30 budget.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We estimate that looser fiscal policy in the October 30 Budget will boost GDP by 0.5% in 2025/26.
- As a result, the MPC will need to hold Bank Rate 25-to-50bp higher than it would otherwise.
- Rate-setters will keep cutting Bank Rate, but fiscal policy is one reason to expect only gradual cuts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect the Chancellor to raise government investment by £24B in 2028/29 in the Budget.
- Ms. Reeves will change the fiscal rules to allow more borrowing to fund the extra investment.
- We expect the Chancellor to target public sector net liabilities falling relative to GDP.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
