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15th May 2024 17:49UKDaily Monitor

  • We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, as services inflation undershoots its forecasts.
  • The MPC’s words in any case signal the precise path of data is not that important for the first rate cut...
  • ... Data may matter more for subsequent changes, so robust wage growth will mean one cut per quarter.

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Keywords for: 17 May 2024 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence