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20th May 2024 14:47UKDaily Monitor

  • We expect two-year gilt yields to fall to 3.9% by end- 2024 as the MPC cuts rates.
  • But high government refinancing and BoE gilt sales limit the fall in 10-year gilt yields to 4.0% at end-2024.
  • Upside risks remain from inflation persistence and implausibly low public-spending forecasts.

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Keywords for: 21 May 2024 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence