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7th Aug 2024 17:34UKDaily Monitor

  • July PAYE employment should gain 30K month-to-month, while the June jobless rate rises to 4.5%.
  • We think May AWE growth being revised up is a decent bet and we factor in a 0.2% bump.
  • So we expect Q2 year-over-year private-sector AWE ex. bonuses growth 20bp above the MPC’s forecast.

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Keywords for: 9 August 2024 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence