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3rd Jun 2024 11:03UKDaily Monitor

  • We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in May and April’s fall to be revised close to no change.
  • We think private-sector AWE will leap 0.8% month-to-month in April as the NLW hike feeds through.
  • Risks are skewed to an even stronger wage print, challenging our call that the MPC will cut rates in August.

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Keywords for: 4 June 2024 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence