Still weak, with no recovery likely anytime soon.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Hurricanes weigh on single-family starts, but the underlying trend is flat.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The softening in the labor market remains very gradual.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consistent with a core PCE print on the 0.2-to-0.3% borderline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
October's improvement mostly reflects politics.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Core retail sales usually struggle after hurricanes, and warm weather likely weighed on clothing sales.
- Carryover from Q3 will support growth in consumption in Q4, but expect slower gains from here.
- Credit conditions remain very restrictive, as banks have continued to tighten lending standards.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consumers in high spirits pre-election.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Weak October payrolls were only partly due to strikes and storms.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Weakness in the sector extends well beyond Boeing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Hit to payrolls from Milton likely was limited.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Probably not the start of a strong recovery.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Solid growth unlikely to prevent a November easing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
No reason to change payroll forecasts, given ADP's poor record
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Strong growth in consumption drove another solid expansion in headline GDP in Q3.
- But household are running out of steam, and the cracks are starting to show in investment spending.
- Claims today are unlikely to tell us much about Milton’s likely impact on the October jobs report.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We think GDP grew by 3.5% in Q3, underpinned by another solid increase in consumers’ spending.
- But growth probably will slow sharply over the next few quarters, as households start to tire.
- The core PCE deflator likely rose by just 2.0%, and underlying inflation is set to remain in check.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Underlying investment demand is still weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Probably a high watermark for new home sales.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Boost from Milton underwhelms, while claims elsewhere drop back.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Expect an aircraft-driven plunge in durable goods orders in September, but some core weakness too.
- Demand for investment equipment was soft in Q3, outside the aircraft and computer components.
- The latest jobless claims data offer mixed messages on October payrolls, but we expect a weak print.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Energy inflation likely will be little affected by Milton and Helene, food inflation will rise slightly eventually.
- But the case for a marked rise in core inflation is pretty slim, given the historical record.
- The main exception for October probably is the risk of a jump in prices for lodging away from home.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
