US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL EASE MATERIALLY, DESPITE RISING INFLATION
Samuel TombsUS
- People are the most downbeat about the outlook for 45 years and are very worried about losing their job.
- Timely spending and borrowing data, however, continue to run above levels consistent with recession.
- Tariff-related inflation will be milder than people fear; Fed policy easing will shore up sentiment too.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Samuel TombsUS
- The subdued March core CPI reading will be followed by much bigger increases in the coming months...
- ...But ongoing weakness in underlying services inflation should lessen the trade-off faced by the Fed.
- March PPI data are worth watching for signs retailers are absorbing some early tariff costs in their margins.
Samuel TombsUS
- Uncertainty remains high even after Mr. Trump’s blink; for now, the tariffs imply a 1% uplift to consumer prices.
- …That’s a slightly smaller boost than we previously factored in, but the outlook for exports has darkened.
- China’s 84% tariffs will inflict a 0.3% blow to US GDP; we still expect the economy to slow to a near-standstill.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariff-funded tax cuts would simply give with one hand while taking more with the other.
- The net federal revenue available is likely to be just $200B, after accounting for the weaker economy.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% rise in the March core CPI; it’s too soon to see impact of China tariffs
Samuel TombsUS
- Recent falls in oil prices and shipping costs will offset about one quarter of the tariff boost to inflation.
- The $10 fall in WTI oil prices, however, also points to a 0.1% hit to GDP via lower business investment.
- The fall in financial wealth is consistent with households’ spending undershooting its trend by 0.7%.
Samuel TombsUS
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
Samuel TombsUS
- The stock price drawdown is historically consistent with a 1% fall in payrolls, but slow gains are more likely.
- Most services firms have little exposure to tariffs; leading indicators of hiring are weak, not on the floor.
- The healthcare sector will remain a jobs juggernaut; falling manufacturing payrolls will drag modestly.
Samuel TombsUS
- The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
- We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
- The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.
Samuel TombsUS
- Border Patrol encounters have fallen to zero, but unauthorized immigration likely will rebound soon.
- ICE arrests have risen only slightly; the hit to labor force growth so far is modest.
- A shrinking wage growth premium for job switchers suggests lower core services inflation ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
Clear signs of an underlying consumer slowdown.
Samuel TombsUS
- GDP looks set to grow at a mere 1% pace in Q1, following February’s weak consumption data.
- Fading pre-tariff frontrunning, however, explains the slowdown; core services spending is still rising.
- Tariffs will weigh on real income growth by less than 1%; recession remains unlikely.
Samuel TombsUS
Reeling from the tariff threats.
Samuel TombsUS
- Markets pulled back expectations for Fed easing, after the recovery in the composite PMI in March...
- ...But the survey also signalled declining margins in manufacturing, and lower services inflation.
- New home sales likely revived in February after adverse weather, but renewed weakness lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING, NOT CRATERING…
- …CORE INFLATION TO STAY SUB-3%, ENABLING FED TO EASE
Samuel TombsUS
- Improving aggregate household balance sheets last year masked a big rise in loan delinquencies.
- More people will miss loan payments as unemployment increases and student loan payments jump.
- The sharp fall in stock prices likely will weigh on the March flash estimate of the S&P composite PMI.
Samuel TombsUS
- Jobless claims are unlikely to remain low for long; WARN data are consistent with a jump in April.
- Indeed’s measure of job postings now is down 9% since Mr. Trump’s inauguration; uncertainty is biting.
- Regional Fed surveys for March so far suggest manufacturers are absorbing some of the tariff costs.
Samuel TombsUS
- The median FOMC member still expects to ease policy by 50bp this year, but slowdown fears have grown.
- Most members expect tariff inflation to be transitory; attention will soon switch to rising unemployment.
- Homebase data imply private payroll growth slowed to 50K in March, but it likely overstates the downshift.
Samuel TombsUS
- The median FOMC forecast likely will envisage easing by 50bp this year, the same as in December.
- The Chair will retain all options, leaving investors unsure if trade war escalation would mean lower rates.
- We continue to expect the FOMC ultimately to ease by 75bp this year, with the first move in June.
Samuel TombsUS
