US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
WILL MARKETS’ ENTHUSIASM FOR MR. TRUMP PERSIST?
- …INFLATION RISKS ARE BIG ENOUGH TO SLOW FED EASING
Samuel TombsUS
Pick-up in continuing claims consistent with a further slowing in hiring.
Samuel TombsUS
- The PMI's future output index will provide the first good gauge of post-election business confidence.
- Early evidence implies consumer confidence has leapt; we look for upward revisions to UoM's survey.
- October's bump left existing home sales at a very low level; further weakness likely lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- The "DOGE" target of $2T savings is ludicrous, but spending cuts could offset some of the tax cuts.
- Lower fiscal multipliers for tax cuts than for tariff rises and spending cuts also point to a small GDP boost.
- Seasonal adjustment will depress today's jobless claims data; expect a slightly rising trend this winter.
Samuel TombsUS
- Florida payrolls fell modestly in October, suggesting that the national trend is running close to 100K.
- We are sticking to our forecast for a 250K rebound in November payrolls, consistent with a slowing trend.
- October's drop in housing starts was weather-driven, but the outlook for residential investment is dim.
Samuel TombsUS
- Homebase and other data point to private job growth of about 200K between September and November...
- ...Implying a rebound after October's hurricane hit; we expect 225K private/250K headline in November.
- October housing starts likely were hurricane-hit; homebuilders' optimism about 2025 looks ill-judged.
Samuel TombsUS
Flat ex-Boeing and ex-storms; the trend will remain weak next year.
Samuel TombsUS
Constrained by hurricanes and falling prices; real consumption still likely to grow briskly in Q4.
Samuel TombsUS
- Markets now see a 60% chance of a 25bp easing in December, down from 80% before the election...
- ...But October state-level payroll data, due Tuesday, likely will reignite concerns about labor demand.
- Early evidence points to a muted rebound in payrolls and a below-trend increase in the CPI in November.
Samuel TombsUS
PCE components rose rapidly; on course for a 0.30% core PCE increase
Samuel TombsUS
- October CPI and PPI data imply that the core PCE deflator increased by 0.30%, the most since March...
- ...But the rise was driven by volatile airline fares, a hot patch for the stock market and catch-up rent rises.
- The Boeing strike and hurricanes probably weighed down manufacturing output last month.
Samuel TombsUS
- Over half of the 0.3% increase in the core CPI was due to rent, which Chair Powell has de-emphasized.
- CPI auto insurance prices likely will rebound in November, but airline fares prices probably will fall back.
- The jump in used auto prices is liable to reverse soon; core goods prices will continue to trend down.
Samuel TombsUS
- The core CPI likely rose by 0.3% in October, driven by used auto prices and hotel room rates.
- Underlying services inflation, however, probably continued to decline; rent inflation likely cooled too.
- November's CPI data should reassure the FOMC that it can ease policy again at next month's meeting.
Samuel TombsUS
- Chair Powell emphasised that the elections would have little bearing on December's policy decision...
- ...Labor market data will support a further 25bp easing; more to come in 2025, but fiscal policy will be key.
- The Fed has little to fear from unit labor costs, even after the latest upward revisions.
Samuel TombsUS
Boosted partly by temporary supply chain disruption; core services inflation is still falling.
Samuel TombsUS
- Labor market data are weak enough for the FOMC to ease by another 25bp today...
- ...But tariffs likely will keep core PCE inflation above 2%, so we now look for more gradual easing in 2025.
- Much of Mr. Trump’s agenda, however, will depress GDP growth, keeping the terminal rate low.
Samuel TombsUS
- Donald Trump’s migration plans would hit growth in GDP and employment and likely push up inflation...
- ...But his campaign’s most extreme proposals for mass deportations seem unlikely to materialize.
- Ending election spending will depress consumption growth this winter, but leave jobs largely unaffected.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think that a 10pp jump in the effective tariff rate would boost the core PCE deflator by about 0.8pp.
- The experience of past tariffs suggests exporters will maintain prices and retailers absorb little of the cost.
- Inflation expectations are above target-consistent levels; the Fed can’t ignore the tariffs this time.
Samuel TombsUS
- The latest claims data suggest the hit to NFP from Hurricanes Helene and Milton was relatively small.
- September’s hefty rise in the core PCE deflator will be a blip; October’s storm-related boost will be small.
- Job market loosening points to lower core inflation in 2025, but Mr. Trump’s tariffs would upend that story.
Samuel TombsUS
- Both the job postings-to-unemployment ratio and the quits rate are now well below pre-Covid levels.
- ADP’s data has a poor record of capturing the hit to private payrolls from hurricanes.
- September’s jump in the trade deficit was due to inventory accumulation; Q3 GDP growth will be strong.
Samuel TombsUS
