US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Samuel Tombs
- People are using credit, despite its high cost, to bring forward big-ticket purchases to avoid tariffs.
- Credit cards supported spending growth by 0.2pp in Q4; expect a similar boost in Q1, then a hefty drag.
- Business investment probably will continue to stagnate over the next few quarters.
Samuel TombsUS
- Business confidence is net unchanged since before the election, while consumers are more downbeat.
- PMI data signal strong growth in January payrolls, but other indicators point to renewed weakness.
- We doubt Mr Trump can engineer a both boom in oil output and much lower rates in the short term.
Samuel TombsUS
RISING UNEMPLOYMENT TO SPUR FURTHER FED EASING…
- …INFLATION WILL STILL FALL UNDER MOST TARIFF SCENARIOS
Samuel TombsUS
- Ignore the Q4 plunge in the BLS new tenant rent index; it is usually revised up sharply...
- …CPI housing inflation still looks set to slow this year, contributing to a fall in overall core inflation.
- California wildfires lifted initial claims last week, but the pick-up in continuing claims has deeper roots.
Samuel TombsUS
- The federal hiring freeze likely will reduce monthly payroll growth by about 15K from February to April.
- Federal jobs account for just 2% of total payrolls, making a very big drag on the headline unlikely.
- Measures of economic policy uncertainty have shot up; that’s usually a bad sign for payroll growth too.
Samuel TombsUS
- The tariff outlook is uncertain, but core PCE inflation probably will be lower at the end of 2025 than now.
- The upward impact on prices likely will be mitigated by a diversion in trade flows, among other factors.
- Beware forecasts for January payrolls derived from Homebase data, which are extremely seasonal.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariffs are inflationary, despite claims to the contrary, and we see other upside risks during Trump 2.0…
- …But a repeat of the runaway inflation seen in the latter half of the 1970s seems very unlikely.
- The Fed provides a far more effective backstop against sustained inflation now than it did back then.
Samuel TombsUS
Disinflation still progressing; core PCE deflator likely up just 0.2%.
Samuel TombsUS
- Retail sales were solid in December, and consumers’ real spending likely rose by about 3.5% in Q4.
- Some temporary factors, however, probably are supporting sales; we expect a mid-year lull in spending.
- Governor Waller still envisages easing policy further in H1; we think rising layoffs will spur action in March.
Samuel TombsUS
Massive rise in airline fares leaves core PCE deflator set to rise by 0.3%.
Samuel TombsUS
- Reassuringly calm CPI data imply the core PCE deflator likely rose by just 0.19% in December.
- CPI auto prices will fall back in Q1, and leading indicators point to a lower core services inflation ahead.
- Retail sales probably were strong again in December, but a softer spell likely lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- PPI data combined with our CPI forecast suggest core PCE inflation likely rose to 3.0% in December...
- ...But the PPI report also contained some reassuring signals for the near-term inflation outlook.
- Further improvement in the NFIB in December likely driven by politics rather than by fundamentals.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 0.5% increase in the December headline CPI, and a fifth straight 0.3% rise in the core.
- Strong holiday demand boosted prices for gasoline, air transportation and accommodation.
- Rent and auto insurance prices likely rebounded after below-trend increases in November.
Samuel TombsUS
- December payroll growth likely will be revised to a slower pace, given the usual skew in late responses.
- The trend is revealed only from data spanning about six months; payroll growth was lower in H2 than H1.
- Homebase data make payroll forecasts less accurate; they are a poor guide even to hospitality payrolls.
Samuel TombsUS
Claims are noisy at the turn of the year; forward-looking indicators point to a renewed rise ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Option pricing indicates markets will move sharply today if payrolls deviate much from the consensus...
- ...But payrolls have become noisier as the response rate has declined; trends take six months to emerge.
- Auto sales have been lifted by storms, tariff talk and a dip in auto loan rates; expect sales to falter mid-year.
Samuel TombsUS
Falling quits point to a further slowdown in wage growth ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Profits are very sensitive to GDP growth, and reliably lead employment growth at turning points.
- Much weaker growth in profits would suggest trouble ahead for the broader economy.
- Seasonals are pushing down claims; they also fell in the first week of prior years with identical calendars.
Samuel TombsUS
- JOLTS job postings are noisy and usually revised down; Indeed’s data are a better guide to the trend.
- Muted overall net hiring, and net job losses among very small firms, suggest Fed policy is still too tight.
- Fade the jump in the ISM services prices index; it is far more volatile than underlying services inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a lethargic 150K in December payrolls, with private jobs increasing by just 120K...
- ...NFIB hiring intentions and Indeed job postings—the only survey indicators worth tracking—are weak.
- Mild weather likely lifted December construction payrolls, but the boost won’t last.
Samuel TombsUS
