US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
- The end of year declines in both initial and continuing claims are due to seasonal adjustment problems.
- The recent pick-up in WARN layoff filings suggests initial claims will rise over the coming months.
- Unemployment likely rose again last month, despite lower claims, driven by rising long-term joblessness.
Samuel TombsUS
The post-election pick-up in sentiment has faded quickly.
Samuel TombsUS
Shipments point to unchanged equipment investment in Q4.
Samuel TombsUS
Expect further mild core PCE increases in the near term.
Samuel TombsUS
- Big increases in purchases of high-value durable goods largely drove November's brisk consumption.
- Real after-tax income growth will slow next year amid modest wage rises and falling savings income.
- Spending growth will lull in mid-2025 even without tariffs, as people are acting now like they are coming.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 0.13% increase in the November core PCE deflator, easing fears about sticky inflation.
- The unemployment rate probably still rose in December, despite the slight fall in continuing claims.
- The recent upturn in home sales is unlikely to last now that mortgage rates are rising again.
Samuel TombsUS
- Most FOMC members envisage easing by just 50bp in 2025, but rising unemployment will spur more.
- WARN and Challenger data point to a renewed rise in jobless claims and an above-consensus print today.
- A rare rise in the Leading Economic Index in November will grab attention today, but it should be ignored.
Samuel TombsUS
- November's retail sales suggest real consumption is on track to rise by a solid 3% or so in Q4...
- ...But income growth is slowing and favorable wealth effects on spending will fade in 2025.
- Expect a downturn in residential construction, now that the pipeline of new projects is drying up.
Samuel TombsUS
Stagnation will remain the story in 2025.
Samuel TombsUS
- Retail sales likely grew strongly in November, as the drag from Hurricane Milton in October unwound.
- But mounting headwinds for households suggest weaker growth in consumers' spending in 2025.
- The consensus for growth in November production likely overlooks falls in mining and utilities output.
Samuel TombsUS
Some signs of pre-tariff inventory accumulation, but few firms are raising prices.
Samuel TombsUS
Looser labour market will spur more Fed easing...
but tariff-led inflation will slow the pace, soon
Samuel TombsUS
- A 25bp easing this week is nailed-on, but recent data suggest a slower pace of rate reductions ahead.
- The median FOMC participant likely will project 75bp total easing next year, 25bp less than in September.
- The Fed is still too optimistic about the labor market; 100bp is our base case, but inflation risk is rising.
Samuel TombsUS
- Ignore PPI egg-flation; components relevant for the core PCE were soft, implying a mere 0.13% increase.
- The PPI data also point to a further decline in inflation in core services ex-rent in Q1.
- Low initial jobless claims paint an overly rosy picture of the labor market, given hiring is so weak.
Samuel TombsUS
Core PCE components signal a mere 0.13% November increase.
Samuel TombsUS
- The 0.3% rise in the core CPI was powered by jumps in vehicle and hotel room prices, which are volatile...
- ...These components have a much smaller weight in the core PCE, which likely rose by just 0.2%.
- Expect 0.2% core PCE prints in December and January, but tariffs threaten to upend the benign trend.
Samuel TombsUS
Pointing to a 0.2% core PCE print; the FOMC can ease again with a clear conscience.
Samuel TombsUS
- The recent re-acceleration in growth in AHE looks like noise; few other timely gauges are picking up.
- Most reliable indicators of labor demand point to underlying wage growth falling below 4% soon.
- Wage growth won’t hold up Fed easing, provided Mr.Trump’s immigration bark is worse than his bite.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 0.3% rise in the November core CPI, leaving the inflation rate unchanged since June.
- Hotel and auto insurance prices likely picked up; residual seasonality threatens other services prices.
- The FOMC will ease policy again next week, but November data will bolster case for a January pause.
Samuel TombsUS
- Rising stock prices and other surveys point to a pickup in the Michigan confidence index this month...
- ...But a renewed rise in medium-term inflation expectations risks causing a headache for the Fed.
- A rise in the unemployment rate in November is still signalled by revised continuing claims data.
Samuel TombsUS
