US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
- Rising stock prices and other surveys point to a pickup in the Michigan confidence index this month...
- ...But a renewed rise in medium-term inflation expectations risks causing a headache for the Fed.
- A rise in the unemployment rate in November is still signalled by revised continuing claims data.
Samuel TombsUS
- November's meager rebound in payrolls implies the trend still is slowing; revisions will worsen the picture.
- The rise in NFIB's hiring intentions index is politics induced noise; demand for new staff is very weak.
- The unemployment rate is on a steady rising trend; an immigration rush before new rules will reinforce it.
Samuel TombsUS
- Continuing claims data, after revisions, are a good guide to the trend in short-term unemployment...
- ...But unemployment is more broadly defined and is subject to large sampling error; noise can dominate.
- Residential construction payrolls look likely to plunge, given the ongoing slump in homebuilding.
Samuel TombsUS
The first estimate of job postings is noisy; labor demand is still weakening.
Samuel TombsUS
- Ignore the pick-up in job openings; less volatile data from Indeed point to an ongoing downward trend.
- Low net hiring throughout October suggests payroll growth slowed primarily due to underlying weakness.
- ADP's data is a useless guide to the official estimate of private payrolls, including for every specific sector.
Samuel TombsUS
- Downward revisions to payrolls have been biggest in sectors with above-average shares of small firms.
- ADP and JOLTS data also suggest small businesses have slowed hiring more than large corporations.
- The manufacturing sector is showing signs of life, but major headwinds remain.
Samuel TombsUS
- Expect an unconvincing 250K gain in November jobs; October weakness was more than Milton and strikes.
- The low response rate for October's estimate adds to uncertainty over the size of November's recovery...
- ...But household survey and claims data also suggest October’s slowing had little to do with bad weather.
Samuel TombsUS
Revisions reveal a weaker trend in household income growth and a lower saving rate.
Samuel TombsUS
Low initial claims still consistent with rising unemployment, given very muted hiring.
Samuel TombsUS
Mirroring the late 2016 surge, when spending growth was unaffected.
Samuel TombsUS
- Trade re-routing and retailer margin compression likely will soften the tariff blow to consumer prices...
- ...Nevertheless, Mr. Trump's latest plans likely would lift the headline PCE deflator by a hefty 0.5% or so.
- Tariff “front-running” by companies looks set to step up soon, probably dragging slightly on GDP growth.
Samuel TombsUS
- Payrolls usually have been a better guide to the final GDP estimate one quarter ahead than current GDP...
- ...So the outlook for Q4 GDP likely is better signalled by the Q3 slowing in payrolls than still-strong GDP.
- Q4 consumption likely started strongly in October, but fading income growth is a troubling omen.
Samuel TombsUS
- The flash future output index of S&P composite PMI survey was no higher in November than in October.
- Consumers’ confidence is lower after the election than beforehand, according to the U. Mich survey.
- Employment and pricing indicators have continued to weaken; the FOMC very likely will ease next month.
Samuel TombsUS
WILL MARKETS’ ENTHUSIASM FOR MR. TRUMP PERSIST?
- …INFLATION RISKS ARE BIG ENOUGH TO SLOW FED EASING
Samuel TombsUS
Pick-up in continuing claims consistent with a further slowing in hiring.
Samuel TombsUS
- The PMI's future output index will provide the first good gauge of post-election business confidence.
- Early evidence implies consumer confidence has leapt; we look for upward revisions to UoM's survey.
- October's bump left existing home sales at a very low level; further weakness likely lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- The "DOGE" target of $2T savings is ludicrous, but spending cuts could offset some of the tax cuts.
- Lower fiscal multipliers for tax cuts than for tariff rises and spending cuts also point to a small GDP boost.
- Seasonal adjustment will depress today's jobless claims data; expect a slightly rising trend this winter.
Samuel TombsUS
- Florida payrolls fell modestly in October, suggesting that the national trend is running close to 100K.
- We are sticking to our forecast for a 250K rebound in November payrolls, consistent with a slowing trend.
- October's drop in housing starts was weather-driven, but the outlook for residential investment is dim.
Samuel TombsUS
- Homebase and other data point to private job growth of about 200K between September and November...
- ...Implying a rebound after October's hurricane hit; we expect 225K private/250K headline in November.
- October housing starts likely were hurricane-hit; homebuilders' optimism about 2025 looks ill-judged.
Samuel TombsUS
Flat ex-Boeing and ex-storms; the trend will remain weak next year.
Samuel TombsUS
