US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
Flat ex-Boeing and ex-storms; the trend will remain weak next year.
Samuel TombsUS
Constrained by hurricanes and falling prices; real consumption still likely to grow briskly in Q4.
Samuel TombsUS
- Markets now see a 60% chance of a 25bp easing in December, down from 80% before the election...
- ...But October state-level payroll data, due Tuesday, likely will reignite concerns about labor demand.
- Early evidence points to a muted rebound in payrolls and a below-trend increase in the CPI in November.
Samuel TombsUS
PCE components rose rapidly; on course for a 0.30% core PCE increase
Samuel TombsUS
- October CPI and PPI data imply that the core PCE deflator increased by 0.30%, the most since March...
- ...But the rise was driven by volatile airline fares, a hot patch for the stock market and catch-up rent rises.
- The Boeing strike and hurricanes probably weighed down manufacturing output last month.
Samuel TombsUS
- Over half of the 0.3% increase in the core CPI was due to rent, which Chair Powell has de-emphasized.
- CPI auto insurance prices likely will rebound in November, but airline fares prices probably will fall back.
- The jump in used auto prices is liable to reverse soon; core goods prices will continue to trend down.
Samuel TombsUS
- The core CPI likely rose by 0.3% in October, driven by used auto prices and hotel room rates.
- Underlying services inflation, however, probably continued to decline; rent inflation likely cooled too.
- November's CPI data should reassure the FOMC that it can ease policy again at next month's meeting.
Samuel TombsUS
- Chair Powell emphasised that the elections would have little bearing on December's policy decision...
- ...Labor market data will support a further 25bp easing; more to come in 2025, but fiscal policy will be key.
- The Fed has little to fear from unit labor costs, even after the latest upward revisions.
Samuel TombsUS
Boosted partly by temporary supply chain disruption; core services inflation is still falling.
Samuel TombsUS
- Labor market data are weak enough for the FOMC to ease by another 25bp today...
- ...But tariffs likely will keep core PCE inflation above 2%, so we now look for more gradual easing in 2025.
- Much of Mr. Trump’s agenda, however, will depress GDP growth, keeping the terminal rate low.
Samuel TombsUS
- Donald Trump’s migration plans would hit growth in GDP and employment and likely push up inflation...
- ...But his campaign’s most extreme proposals for mass deportations seem unlikely to materialize.
- Ending election spending will depress consumption growth this winter, but leave jobs largely unaffected.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think that a 10pp jump in the effective tariff rate would boost the core PCE deflator by about 0.8pp.
- The experience of past tariffs suggests exporters will maintain prices and retailers absorb little of the cost.
- Inflation expectations are above target-consistent levels; the Fed can’t ignore the tariffs this time.
Samuel TombsUS
- The latest claims data suggest the hit to NFP from Hurricanes Helene and Milton was relatively small.
- September’s hefty rise in the core PCE deflator will be a blip; October’s storm-related boost will be small.
- Job market loosening points to lower core inflation in 2025, but Mr. Trump’s tariffs would upend that story.
Samuel TombsUS
Pick-up probably election-related; spending growth unlikely to keep strengthening.
Samuel TombsUS
Larger deficit driven by stockpiling in preparation for the port strikes.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 100K rise in October non-farm payrolls; surveys show the trend in private payrolls is slowing.
- Strikes likely cut payrolls by about 40K; the hit from Hurricane Milton is less certain, but 25K is plausible.
- Homebase data show employment in Florida was lower than usual throughout the week.
Samuel TombsUS
Weakness due to high mortgage rates, not hurricanes or the approaching elections.
Samuel TombsUS
Sentiment improving, but mortgage rates remain too high for demand to recover materially.
Samuel TombsUS
Bouncing back after a poor H1, but Q3’s momentum will not be sustained.
Samuel TombsUS
Consistent with a 0.2% core PCE print; the momentum was in non-PCE components.
Samuel TombsUS
