US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Homebuilders seem too optimistic about the outlook.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Stagnation will remain the story in 2025.
Samuel TombsUS
Consumers aren’t throwing in the towel just yet.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Retail sales likely grew strongly in November, as the drag from Hurricane Milton in October unwound.
- But mounting headwinds for households suggest weaker growth in consumers' spending in 2025.
- The consensus for growth in November production likely overlooks falls in mining and utilities output.
Samuel TombsUS
Some signs of pre-tariff inventory accumulation, but few firms are raising prices.
Samuel TombsUS
Services growth still robust, but the inflation outlook is encouraging.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Looser labour market will spur more Fed easing...
but tariff-led inflation will slow the pace, soon
Samuel TombsUS
- A 25bp easing this week is nailed-on, but recent data suggest a slower pace of rate reductions ahead.
- The median FOMC participant likely will project 75bp total easing next year, 25bp less than in September.
- The Fed is still too optimistic about the labor market; 100bp is our base case, but inflation risk is rising.
Samuel TombsUS
- Ignore PPI egg-flation; components relevant for the core PCE were soft, implying a mere 0.13% increase.
- The PPI data also point to a further decline in inflation in core services ex-rent in Q1.
- Low initial jobless claims paint an overly rosy picture of the labor market, given hiring is so weak.
Samuel TombsUS
Post-Thanksgiving volatility probably drove the jump in initial claims.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Core PCE components signal a mere 0.13% November increase.
Samuel TombsUS
- The 0.3% rise in the core CPI was powered by jumps in vehicle and hotel room prices, which are volatile...
- ...These components have a much smaller weight in the core PCE, which likely rose by just 0.2%.
- Expect 0.2% core PCE prints in December and January, but tariffs threaten to upend the benign trend.
Samuel TombsUS
Pointing to a 0.2% core PCE print; the FOMC can ease again with a clear conscience.
Samuel TombsUS
- The recent re-acceleration in growth in AHE looks like noise; few other timely gauges are picking up.
- Most reliable indicators of labor demand point to underlying wage growth falling below 4% soon.
- Wage growth won’t hold up Fed easing, provided Mr.Trump’s immigration bark is worse than his bite.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 0.3% rise in the November core CPI, leaving the inflation rate unchanged since June.
- Hotel and auto insurance prices likely picked up; residual seasonality threatens other services prices.
- The FOMC will ease policy again next week, but November data will bolster case for a January pause.
Samuel TombsUS
A lackluster post-election pick-up confidence; inflation worries in check for now.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Rising stock prices and other surveys point to a pickup in the Michigan confidence index this month...
- ...But a renewed rise in medium-term inflation expectations risks causing a headache for the Fed.
- A rise in the unemployment rate in November is still signalled by revised continuing claims data.
Samuel TombsUS
Services companies see few reasons for cheer in the election result.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- November's meager rebound in payrolls implies the trend still is slowing; revisions will worsen the picture.
- The rise in NFIB's hiring intentions index is politics induced noise; demand for new staff is very weak.
- The unemployment rate is on a steady rising trend; an immigration rush before new rules will reinforce it.
Samuel TombsUS
- Continuing claims data, after revisions, are a good guide to the trend in short-term unemployment...
- ...But unemployment is more broadly defined and is subject to large sampling error; noise can dominate.
- Residential construction payrolls look likely to plunge, given the ongoing slump in homebuilding.
Samuel TombsUS
