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Post-Thanksgiving volatility probably drove the jump in initial claims.
Import stockpiling likely to resume; equipment investment probably weak again in Q4.
The softening in the labor market remains very gradual.
Weak October payrolls were only partly due to strikes and storms.
Hit to payrolls from Milton likely was limited.
Boost from Milton underwhelms, while claims elsewhere drop back.
Helene and strikes obscure the underlying trend.
Net trade probably only a small drag on headline growth in Q3.
Underlying equipment investment is still weak, but computers and aircraft are red hot.
Drag from trade on Q3 GDP growth likely to be offset elsewhere.
Ignore the headline, the underlying trend is very weak.
Clearer signs that services sector employment is rolling over.
Underlying claims have plateaued, and will probably slip back in the near term.
Meagre growth in unit labor costs supports the case for policy easing.
The underlying trend in equipment investment looks weak, despite the bumper Q2 headline.
Hit to Q2 GDP growth from net trade probably offset by inventories and investment.
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