Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Post-Thanksgiving volatility probably drove the jump in initial claims.
The softening in the labor market remains very gradual.
Weak October payrolls were only partly due to strikes and storms.
Hit to payrolls from Milton likely was limited.
Boost from Milton underwhelms, while claims elsewhere drop back.
Helene and strikes obscure the underlying trend.
Clearer signs that services sector employment is rolling over.
Underlying claims have plateaued, and will probably slip back in the near term.
Meagre growth in unit labor costs supports the case for policy easing.
The underlying trend in equipment investment looks weak, despite the bumper Q2 headline.
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