US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Global Daily Monitor Samuel Tombs
- Homebase data point to steady employment growth, and WARN data indicate layoffs remain low...
- ...But Indeed job postings are falling at a faster pace, and Empire State hiring intentions have weakened.
- High mortgage rates and consumers’ low confidence imply higher homebuilder optimism won’t last.
- Corporate balance sheets look healthy in aggregate;
private credit is a small and stable part of the picture.
- Mortgage refinancing is continuing to reverse its
mid-September surge; expect low levels next year too.
- The Empire State survey signals renewed impetus in
factory gate inflation; fingers crossed it’s an outlier.
- We expect a 0.4% rise in the headline CPI—below the 0.5% priced into swaps—and a 0.3% core print.
- Core goods prices likely were boosted again in September by the tariffs, including new vehicle prices.
- Residual seasonality will lift services prices, but the rebound in airline fares is over, and rent is cooling.
- September’s payroll report likely will be released about three working days after the shutdown ends.
- October payrolls will be unaffected by the shutdown, but the unemployment rate will be lifted by 0.2pp.
- The rotation of the regional Fed voters implies a slight hawkish shift in the FOMC early next year.
- AI capex—net of tech imports—lifted H1 GDP growth by an annualized rate of around 0.3pp.
- The boost to spending due to the wealth effect from surging tech stocks likely has been similar.
- That suggests to us that weaker growth is more likely than a recession if the AI boom turns to bust.
- The NY Fed survey suggests the mood among consumers was souring again even before the shutdown.
- The weak labor market and further upward pressure on inflation from tariffs are the most likely culprits.
- Alternative indicators of payrolls are even worse guides to the final estimates than the initial prints.
- Indicators from Revelio, QuickBooks and Paychex are all essentially useless guides to official payrolls.
- Combining NFIB, Conference Board and regional Fed survey data is the only way to beat the consensus.
- We look for a 75K rise in September private payrolls, above these surveys, due to residual seasonality.
- The impact of AI on labor demand so far looks small, even for the most at-risk occupations.
- The payroll slowdown this year has far more to do with trade and immigration policies.
- Auto sales are set to weaken, as an EV tax credit expires and tariffs start to push up prices.
- The government shutdown will hold up key data releases and likely will drag on economic growth.
- Another 25bp easing from the Fed at its next meeting seems like prudent risk-management.
- The effective tariff rate has now crept up to just 12%, and a further climb is likely in the next few months.
- JOLTS openings ticked up slightly in August, but the underlying trend in labor demand still looks weak.
- Conference Board’s labor market numbers point to stagnant payrolls and higher unemployment.
- The shifting balance in the labor market points to weaker underlying wage growth ahead.
- Reliable surveys point to September payrolls rising at a similarly slow pace as the past couple months.
- Seasonal problems signal a jump in hospitality jobs, but federal policies likely weighed on education jobs.
- The unemployment rate likely crept up, while a calendar quirk probably dampened average earnings.
- We are raising our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 2.5%, from 2.0%, after August’s advance indicators...
- ...But advance GDP estimates missed the last three major downturns; payrolls are a better gauge.
- Residual seasonality depresses continuing claims in September; the labor market is still weakening.
- The Chicago Fed’s new unemployment tracker relies on several inputs with a poor track records.
- The weights of the inputs are currently unclear; other—useful—indicators have been overlooked too.
- The 20.5% leap in new home sales in August looks implausible to us, and the outlook remains dim.
- The composite PMI is alone in signalling a return to 3% GDP growth in Q3; its margin of error is wide.
- But the signal of slowing producer price inflation is reliable, consistent with a transitory tariff impact.
- We think new home sales dropped back in August, adding to the woes of homebuilders.
- The openings-to-U6 ratio has fallen materially this year, and job switchers are no longer rewarded.
- The NFIB, regional Fed, Indeed and NY Fed consumer surveys all signal slower wage growth ahead.
- The tariffs are chiefly responsible; wage growth has slowed most at businesses on the front line.
- The median FOMC participant expects to ease by a further 50bp this year, but several envisage less.
- The risks to the FOMC’s unemployment forecast are skewed to the upside; rates will fall to 3% next year.
- Last week’s surge in mortgage refinancing is unlikely to endure; new rates are still too high.
- Inflation-adjusted retail sales continued to climb in August, despite the tariffs...
- ...But consumer have endured only one-third of the tariff costs; Q4 sales likely will be much weaker.
- Manufacturing output edged up again in August, but capex is impeded by tariff uncertainty.
- We look for a 0.5% rise in total retail sales in August, slightly above the consensus...
- ...Auto sales likely fell by about 1%, but most indicators of the control measure point to solid growth.
- Homebase data are robust for the payroll survey week; shame they are no longer a bellwether.
- Tariffs continued to lift goods prices in August; we think pass-through is now about one-third complete.
- Airline fares and accommodation services prices are unlikely to rise much further after leaping in August.
- The outsized August jump in CPI rents is just noise around a slowing trend; nothing to worry about.
- Retailers’ margins began to buckle in August under tariff pressure; expect a significant squeeze ahead.
- Producer prices for goods are still rising in response to tariffs, but the underlying cost picture is benign.
- The core PCE deflator likely rose briskly in August, but no sign of the services price surge implied by the ISM.
