US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Emerging Asia Samuel Tombs
- The estimated increase in real GDP since Q4 2019 has been revised up to 10.7%, from 9.4%.
- August PCE data will point to continued strength in consumers’ spending, but slower growth likely looms.
- We look for a 0.14% August core PCE print, slightly below the consensus.
Samuel TombsUS
- Survey measures of investment intentions point to a weak August durable goods report...
- ...But for now, solid investment in computers and transportation is offsetting broader weakness.
- Seasonally adjustment issues point to another low initial claims print; the labor market is still worsening.
Samuel TombsUS
- We see limited macro implications if Democrats keep the White House...
- ...But split control of Congress likely would mean a slight tightening in fiscal policy, given current plans.
- A Trump victory risks higher inflation and rates, and weaker growth, especially if GOP sweeps Congress.
Samuel TombsUS
- The GDP-GDI gap is big, but revisions usually result in GDI being pulled towards GDP, not vice-versa.
- Firms’ interest payments likely will be revised up, boosting the imputed interest income of households.
- The employment index of S&P’s PMI survey points to very weak growth in private payrolls this autumn.
Samuel TombsUS
- Claims fell to a 20-week low due to faulty seasonal adjustment and calm weather; the firing trend is flat.
- The mix of steady layoffs and a further fall in hiring will propel unemployment upwards at a faster pace.
- Existing home sales dropped back again in August, and a significant recovery is unlikely in the near term.
Samuel TombsUS
- The FOMC’s forecasts imply that slow, steady, easing will stabilize the labor market soon...
- ...But policy is not that powerful and works with long lags; the Committee will ease in 50bp steps again.
- Housing starts rebounded in August, but a further climb is unlikely in the near term.
Samuel TombsUS
- A 25bp easing today is slightly more likely than a 50bp, but markets will care more about the dotplot.
- The Committee likely will forecast 100bp of easing this year, but less than markets expect in 2025.
- August retail sales point to strong consumption growth in Q3; but the outlook is dimming.
Samuel TombsUS
- Homebase data point to rapid growth in private payrolls in September, but they are deeply flawed.
- Hospitality firms dominate the sample, and we have too little data to make good calendar adjustments.
- Data from Visa and Opentable signal that the control measure of retail sales rose further in August.
Samuel TombsUS
