US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Weekly Monitor Samuel Tombs
- Liquid assets matter more for spending than total wealth; most households now hold less than usual.
- The top 20% of the income distribution still has ample liquid assets, but threats to their income loom.
- We see a few factors preventing lower rates from providing a big boost to residential construction.
Samuel TombsUS
THE LABOR MARKET WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER...
- ...LOW INFLATION WILL ENABLE A NIMBLE FED RESPONSE
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a near-zero change in October payrolls; Boeing and Milton likely will each subtract about 50K.
- Similar storms have cost more jobs, but we expect a small hit as Milton arrived midway in the survey week.
- Daily Homebase data show only a small blow to employment on Monday and Tuesday, before Milton hit.
Samuel TombsUS
- The scope for another downward revision to payrolls is high, given the low response rate in September.
- The dip in the unemployment rate is statistically insignificant; reliable surveys point to a rising trend.
- A 25bp easing in November remains a good bet, but labor market data will force a faster pace thereafter.
Samuel TombsUS
- The latest batch of data for August have led us to lift our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 2.5%, from 2.0%.
- Households’ saving rate has been revised up sharply, but the stock of liquid assets still looks low.
- Further labor market weakening will depress income growth and prompt many households to save more.
Samuel TombsUS
- The modest easing planned by the FOMC will be too little, too late, to stabilize the unemployment rate.
- Reductions in the funds rate will lower private sector net interest payments less decisively than in the past.
- Expect a federal funding extension bill to be passed just in time, but bigger squabbles loom next year.
Samuel TombsUS
RESTRICTIVE FED POLICY NO LONGER WARRANTED...
- ...EASING MUST BE RAPID TO STABILIZE THE LABOR MARKET
Samuel TombsUS
- Households have spent all their “excess” savings; liquid assets returned to their long-run trend in Q2.
- Bank deposits are more unevenly distributed than in the 2010s; rising unemployment will lift saving.
- Fed easing will be less stimulative than usual, due to mortgage refinancing during the pandemic.
Samuel TombsUS
