23 September 2024 US Monitor The Fed will abandon plans for a modest, slow easing cycle

• The modest easing planned by the FOMC will be too little, too late, to stabilize the unemployment rate.
• Reductions in the funds rate will lower private sector net interest payments less decisively than in the past.
• Expect a federal funding extension bill to be passed just in time, but bigger squabbles loom next year.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US FOMC Statement, September

Fast out the starting blocks; we expect further 50s soon.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, August

Consistent with another quarter of brisk growth in consumption, but slower growth lies ahead

Samuel TombsUS

16 September 2024 US Monitor Households' balance sheets: Strong at first glance, fragile on closer look

• Households have spent all their “excess” savings; liquid assets returned to their long-run trend in Q2.
• Bank deposits are more unevenly distributed than in the 2010s; rising unemployment will lift saving.
• Fed easing will be less stimulative than usual, due to mortgage refinancing during the pandemic.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US PPI, August 2024

PPI and CPI data suggest the August core PCE rose by about 0.14%, sustaining the slowdown.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, May

A gradual recovery is taking hold, but manufacturing is too small to alter the bigger picture.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, March

Still consistent with resilient growth in consumption, for now

Samuel TombsUS