US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Daily Monitor Samuel Tombs
- We think the control measure retail sales rose by just 0.2% in May, the smallest gain since December.
- The flow of tax refunds to households slowed to a trickle last month, but gas prices rose further.
- Near-real time data are mixed; slower growth, rather than an immediate correction, is most likely.
- Corporates in Q1 took on the largest amount of debt since the pandemic; Q2 looks set to be similar...
- ...But this is partly financing AI capex, which will weigh on employment; households are still not borrowing.
- The manufacturing revival is running out of steam; firms will run down inventory now the Strait is open.
- Headline inflation has hit a three-year high, but we see few signs of increasing underlying pressures.
- The energy shock will lift core goods prices in the coming months, but shelter inflation will cool.
- Slowing wage growth suggests a sustained climb in inflation for core services ex-rent is unlikely.
- The plunge in NFIB hiring intentions in May casts doubt over the recent turnaround in payrolls.
- Capex intentions also are very depressed, suggesting large parts of the economy are struggling.
- May’s jump in existing home sales probably is a false dawn: demand is too weak for a sustained recovery.
- Oil output has barely budged in response to the jump in prices, with few signs of an upturn ahead.
- Medium-term futures prices have risen by far less than spot prices, and capital discipline is tighter.
- A slowdown in consumers’ spending looms, as the hit to real incomes from higher gas prices starts to bite.
- The jump in April job openings was driven by a sector where the first estimate usually is revised significantly.
- Other measures of openings have continued to trend down; low quits imply a real wage squeeze is ahead.
- We doubt that the recent acceleration in corporate profits signals a sharp cyclical upswing.
- Weak growth in headline manufacturing output in recent years is hiding a boom in advanced industriess.
- That’s a plus for productivity and US economic leadership, less so for manufacturing employment.
- The construction sector remains mired in recession; data center surge is offsetting little of wider malaise.
- Q1 growth in personal consumption was revised down to 1.4%, from 1.6%; April saw a marginal rise.
- Real after-tax income has dropped by 1.1% since April; the saving rate is now effectively at its floor.
- Rising asset prices will help, but sluggish growth in real wages and less fiscal support will limit spending.
- The increase in asset prices over the past year implies a one percentage point boost to consumption...
- ..A bit less than rules of thumb imply, due to low confidence, already-low saving and high borrowing costs.
- Real incomes probably will rise just 4% year-over-year in Q4, limiting spending growth to 1%%.
- Manufacturing firms appear to be bringing forward orders to get ahead of supply chain disruptions…
- …That will lift industrial activity, but only in the short term; upward pressure on goods prices is building.
- The outlook for homebuilding remains dim; we expect real residential investment to fall in 2026.
- Online searches for furniture and household goods are surging, and Redbook’s data look red-hot...
- ...But Bloomberg’s Second Measure data—a better guide to spending—point to an emerging slowdown.
- …That subdued steer is echoed by falling airline pas- senger numbers and weak consumer confidence.
- Current fiscal plans imply low-income households will be squeezed by policy in 2027.
- The President’s budget proposal entails more pain for households, to part-fund higher military spending.
- Congress will temper proposed cuts to nondefense spending, but households likely still will be worse-off.
- AI-driven layoffs still look limited, but productivity gains seem to be limiting hiring in a few sectors.
- This drag on labor demand, however, looks relatively small compared to the broader AI economic boost.
- We still think AI is more likely to shift the composition of labor demand than depress it significantly.
- April’s 0.38% rise in the core CPI was driven by one-time jumps in rents, airline fares and tax services.
- Surveys point to bigger rises in core goods prices, but apparel prices will fall from weather-boosted levels.
- Measures of new rents have stalled; we look for 0.20% rises in the core CPI over the next three months.
- The tariffs passed through fully to the CPI by March, but energy-driven goods price hikes will take time...
- Used auto prices and airline fares probably jumped in April, while rents likely rose at twice their trend...
- ...The BLS will use a calculation that will unwind its no-change assumption for rents last October.
- Oil consumption has risen despite soaring prices; goods producers are preparing for disruptions.
- Surveys point to a bigger rise in core goods prices than implied by the rise in oil prices alone.
- We still look for a further 75bp easing but we now expect the first cut in December, not September.
- Weak JOLTS job openings in March push back against the theory that labor demand is picking up.
- Soft hiring and low quits signal limited second-round inflation risk after the energy shock.
- Mounting pressures on homebuilders suggest residential construction payrolls will start falling again.
- GDP grew by 2.0% in Q1, but underlying momentum was weak even before the energy shock hit in full.
- Consumers’ spending slowed further, while investment outside the tech sector dipped again.
- Core PCE inflation will climb further in the near term, but we expect it to be back below 3% by year-end.
- Most Committee members stuck to language implying an easing bias, rather than placate the hawks.
- Powell’s decision to stay on means the President must use Miran’s seat to place Warsh on the FOMC.
- We look for Q1 GDP growth of 1.8%, with consumption mediocre and investment lifted by the AI boom.
- Regular gasoline prices hit a 2026 high earlier this week, despite the modest dip in oil prices.
- Spending on fuel and discretionary services is solid for now, but demand usually wilts after a few months.
- The labor market components of the Conference Board survey suggest hiring remains very weak.
