US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
Soft September sets for stage for more consumer weakness in Q4.
- Spending rose by 2.7% in Q3, but the stagnation in September likely foreshadows a very weak Q4.
- Real incomes are barely rising, and many near-real time indicators point to a sharp slowdown in growth.
- Q1 likely will be weak too, but bumper tax refunds and a pick-up in hiring will support a Q2 revival.
- We look for a 0.22% rise in the September core PCE deflator, which would keep the inflation rate at 2.9%...
- ...This will enable FOMC participants to lower their Q4 forecast, clearing the path for easing policy again.
- Initial claims plunged because seasonal adjustment has gone amiss; labor market slack is still rising.
- ADP’s numbers have considerably understated the initial official estimates of private payrolls this year.
- Reliable surveys suggest an initial private print of 75K-to-100K in November, still too soft for comfort.
- A raft of indicators point to consumer weakness in Q4. We think spending will rise by only around ½%.
- Lower immigration, AI, tariffs and federal job cuts have potential to lift the natural unemployment rate...
- ...But firms are filling openings more easily and plan to slow wage growth, pointing to excess unemployment.
- No signs of excessive unemployment by state or by sector, indicative of a still-low equilibrium rate.
- Investors see a near-90% chance of the FOMC easing next week, back to levels before October’s meeting.
- Sometimes, the Chair moves markets during the blackout via the WSJ, but that seems unlikely now.
- Manufacturing payrolls have fallen materially in 2025, but likely aren’t a canary in the coalmine this time.
- The average effective tariff rate is currently just 12%, far short of the near-20% widely expected in spring.
- China imports have dived; more imports than expected from Canada and Mexico are USMCA-compliant.
- The plunge in the Cass Freight Index looks alarming, but it probably is overstating weakness in industry.
