US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
- Liquid assets matter more for spending than total wealth; most households now hold less than usual.
- The top 20% of the income distribution still has ample liquid assets, but threats to their income loom.
- We see a few factors preventing lower rates from providing a big boost to residential construction.
Samuel TombsUS
THE LABOR MARKET WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER...
- ...LOW INFLATION WILL ENABLE A NIMBLE FED RESPONSE
Samuel TombsUS
- Real goods spending likely leapt by 6.3% in Q3, the most for six quarters, but slower growth beckons.
- Labor income growth is slowing, while savings income will fall; hurricanes will not boost overall sales.
- The latest jobless claims data are still consistent with a big hit to October NFP from strikes and hurricanes.
Samuel TombsUS
- Weak Visa spending data and falling hours worked signal unchanged headline September retail sales.
- The Boeing strike and Hurricane Helene likely pushed up jobless claims again last week.
- Strikes at Boeing probably also weighed heavily on manufacturing output in September.
Samuel TombsUS
- Healthcare and education payrolls together are nearly one million below their pre-Covid trend path...
- ...But healthcare job postings have fallen sharply; S&L governments lack funds to hire many more teachers.
- Consumers perceive the highest chance of missing a debt payment since April 2020; lenders will take note.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a near-zero change in October payrolls; Boeing and Milton likely will each subtract about 50K.
- Similar storms have cost more jobs, but we expect a small hit as Milton arrived midway in the survey week.
- Daily Homebase data show only a small blow to employment on Monday and Tuesday, before Milton hit.
Samuel TombsUS
Consistent with a 0.2% core PCE print; the momentum was in non-PCE components.
Samuel TombsUS
- The CPI points to a benign 0.2% rise in the core PCE deflator; the strength was in non-PCE components.
- The rise in import prices earlier this year lifted core goods prices, but the outlook for both is fine.
- Services disinflation continues; a further fall in wage growth in 2025 will return overall core inflation to 2%.
Samuel TombsUS
- Some FOMC participants preferred a 25bp move last month, suggesting a gradual approach for now...
- ...But worse data in the coming months probably will push the Fed to ease rapidly by the turn of the year.
- Hurricanes Helene and Milton will make the data hard to read, but are unlikely to change Fed policy.
Samuel TombsUS
- The FOMC minutes probably will show a consensus behind gradual and data-dependent rate cuts.
- Recent data suggest a 25bp move is most likely in November, but we see sharper cuts further ahead.
- Credit conditions tightened for small companies in September, highlighting monetary policy’s long lags.
Samuel TombsUS
- Upside risk for the September core CPI from sources including hotel room rates and auto insurance.
- Tickets for sports event probably leapt too; NFL admission costs 9% more this season.
- JD Power data point to rising prices for used autos; import prices flag a break from core goods deflation.
Samuel TombsUS
Low response rate suggests jump in payrolls very likely to be revised away.
Samuel TombsUS
- The scope for another downward revision to payrolls is high, given the low response rate in September.
- The dip in the unemployment rate is statistically insignificant; reliable surveys point to a rising trend.
- A 25bp easing in November remains a good bet, but labor market data will force a faster pace thereafter.
Samuel TombsUS
Boosted marginally by Boeing; expect a further uplift from Hurricane Helene ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Payrolls likely rose by only 135K in September, constrained by slow private and government hiring.
- Initial claims have been distorted by iffy seasonals; unemployment won’t track the drop in continuing claims.
- October private job growth will be close to zero, if strikes at Boeing and the ports continue next week.
Samuel TombsUS
Indicators with a better track record paint a much weaker picture.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a small rise in initial claims to about 225K, from 218K, driven by rolling furloughs at Boeing.
- Storm Helene likely will lift claims to about 250K soon; port-related disruption may add to the pick up.
- The end of the student loan payment “on-ramp” will only hit annual consumption by 0.15% at most.
Samuel TombsUS
- Supply chains have enough flex for a one-week ports strike to have only a negligible impact on GDP...
- ...But a more protracted walkout would weigh greatly on the manufacturing and retail sectors.
- Manufacturing and residential construction payrolls both look likely to decline in the coming months.
Samuel TombsUS
- Only NFIB, Conference Board and Indeed data predict jobs growth better than a
six-month average.
- Collectively, these indicators point to a 115K rise in September private payrolls and a 135K in total NFP.
- The unemployment rate likely edged up; the recent fall in continuing claims is not indicative of the trend.
Samuel TombsUS
