Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Real consumption likely grew at a near-2% rate in Q2, down from 2023’s rapid pace.
Depressed again by the shift to web-based data collection.
Weakening in private payroll growth points to multiple rate cuts in H2.
Layoffs still trending higher, but the data will be noisy over the coming weeks.
The economy’s main engine of growth is looking a lot weaker.
Probably depressed marginally by Juneteenth; the trend remains upwards.
Consistent with slowing consumption growth and a gently rising unemployment rate.
THE SLOWDOWN IS REAL, AND WILL PERSIST…
New mortgage rates still far too high for transactions to recover
A gradual recovery is taking hold, but manufacturing is too small to alter the bigger picture.
Inflation pressures reassuringly absent, given the surge in shipping costs.
May core PCE likely rose just 0.11%, well below the Fed’s expectations.
May core PCE likely rose just 0.11%, well below the Fed’s expectations.
June core PCE likely rose just 0.15%; the Fed can prepare the ground for a September rate cut.
Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.
ADP is too unreliable to take seriously, though it’s consistent with our payroll forecast.
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