US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)
Subdued core PCE inflation and slowing ECI growth green light further material Fed easing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The latest claims data suggest the hit to NFP from Hurricanes Helene and Milton was relatively small.
- September’s hefty rise in the core PCE deflator will be a blip; October’s storm-related boost will be small.
- Job market loosening points to lower core inflation in 2025, but Mr. Trump’s tariffs would upend that story.
Samuel TombsUS
- Both the job postings-to-unemployment ratio and the quits rate are now well below pre-Covid levels.
- ADP’s data has a poor record of capturing the hit to private payrolls from hurricanes.
- September’s jump in the trade deficit was due to inventory accumulation; Q3 GDP growth will be strong.
Samuel TombsUS
Pick-up probably election-related; spending growth unlikely to keep strengthening.
Samuel TombsUS
Larger deficit driven by stockpiling in preparation for the port strikes.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 100K rise in October non-farm payrolls; surveys show the trend in private payrolls is slowing.
- Strikes likely cut payrolls by about 40K; the hit from Hurricane Milton is less certain, but 25K is plausible.
- Homebase data show employment in Florida was lower than usual throughout the week.
Samuel TombsUS
Weakness due to high mortgage rates, not hurricanes or the approaching elections.
Samuel TombsUS
- The boost to claims from Helene likely faded last week, but the impact of Boeing disruption likely grew.
- Expect to see the peak impact of Hurricane Milton in today’s data, lifting headline claims to about 270K.
- Don’t attempt to forecast October payrolls using today’s PMI report; other indicators are better.
Samuel TombsUS
- The average coupon rate for corporate bonds will continue to climb as maturing bonds are refinanced.
- Small businesses remain reliant for external finance on banks, which are continuing to increase spreads.
- Helene likely had a minor impact on existing home sales last month, which we think were little changed.
Samuel TombsUS
Sentiment improving, but mortgage rates remain too high for demand to recover materially.
Samuel TombsUS
Bouncing back after a poor H1, but Q3’s momentum will not be sustained.
Samuel TombsUS
- Liquid assets matter more for spending than total wealth; most households now hold less than usual.
- The top 20% of the income distribution still has ample liquid assets, but threats to their income loom.
- We see a few factors preventing lower rates from providing a big boost to residential construction.
Samuel TombsUS
THE LABOR MARKET WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER...
- ...LOW INFLATION WILL ENABLE A NIMBLE FED RESPONSE
Samuel TombsUS
- Real goods spending likely leapt by 6.3% in Q3, the most for six quarters, but slower growth beckons.
- Labor income growth is slowing, while savings income will fall; hurricanes will not boost overall sales.
- The latest jobless claims data are still consistent with a big hit to October NFP from strikes and hurricanes.
Samuel TombsUS
- Weak Visa spending data and falling hours worked signal unchanged headline September retail sales.
- The Boeing strike and Hurricane Helene likely pushed up jobless claims again last week.
- Strikes at Boeing probably also weighed heavily on manufacturing output in September.
Samuel TombsUS
- Healthcare and education payrolls together are nearly one million below their pre-Covid trend path...
- ...But healthcare job postings have fallen sharply; S&L governments lack funds to hire many more teachers.
- Consumers perceive the highest chance of missing a debt payment since April 2020; lenders will take note.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a near-zero change in October payrolls; Boeing and Milton likely will each subtract about 50K.
- Similar storms have cost more jobs, but we expect a small hit as Milton arrived midway in the survey week.
- Daily Homebase data show only a small blow to employment on Monday and Tuesday, before Milton hit.
Samuel TombsUS
Consistent with a 0.2% core PCE print; the momentum was in non-PCE components.
Samuel TombsUS
- The CPI points to a benign 0.2% rise in the core PCE deflator; the strength was in non-PCE components.
- The rise in import prices earlier this year lifted core goods prices, but the outlook for both is fine.
- Services disinflation continues; a further fall in wage growth in 2025 will return overall core inflation to 2%.
Samuel TombsUS
- Some FOMC participants preferred a 25bp move last month, suggesting a gradual approach for now...
- ...But worse data in the coming months probably will push the Fed to ease rapidly by the turn of the year.
- Hurricanes Helene and Milton will make the data hard to read, but are unlikely to change Fed policy.
Samuel TombsUS
