US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Weekly Monitor Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
- Slowing wage gains, normalized supply chains, and a shrinking money supply will constrain inflation…
- …But anything can happen over periods as short as a few months, and the Fed is backward-looking.
- March core retail sales appear to have been soft, capping a sluggish first quarter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The initial March jobs numbers were even stronger than Homebase implied, but things can change…
- ...We’re sticking to our base-case view that payroll growth will slow markedly in the second quarter.
- Monetary tightening works with long lags, and multiple indicators now point to slower hiring and rising layoffs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- February’s subdued core PCE price data support the idea that January’s spike was a one-time fluke.
- Consumption is on track for a 2% gain in Q1, down from 3.3% in Q4, and real income growth is slowing
- A modest uptick in ISM manufacturing is a decent bet, but the sector remains weak.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
THE LABOR MARKET IS ABOUT TO SLOW, SHARPLY…
- …THE FED WILL RESPOND, BUT WHEN?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The March Philly Fed and S&P surveys suggest the manufacturing sector’s downturn is over...
- ...But ongoing inventory rundowns and depressed global demand point to only modest growth ahead.
- New home sales likely rose for a third straight month in February; homebuilders will hang on to market share.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The shrinking stock of excess savings has exposed most households and small firms to the Fed’s hikes…
- Recent evidence of slowing growth is not yet definitive, but it has our attention.
- Nothing would shift market expectations of faster easing than a clear softening in payrolls; is it coming?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
