- The closer we look at last week’s data, the less useful it appears to be as a guide to the future.
- The inflation picture is much better than the PPI and CPI data suggest; the Fed can relax...
- ...And the severe weather likely hurt retail sales, manufacturing output and housing starts, temporarily.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
More disappointment, but no change in the trend or the fundamentals
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The CBO projects a substantial drop in the federal budget deficit this year; a headwind to growth.
- With households likely to slow the rundown of their pandemic savings too, weaker growth is a good bet.
- The annual CPI revisions were modest, and leave the clear downward trend in place.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Head-scratching numbers kill March stone dead, and threaten May too
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Whatever really happened to payrolls in January, leading indicators point to much slower gains in Q2.
- The spike in hourly earnings likely reflects the mis-measurement of hours, not a rebound in the trend.
- The January data have killed any chance of a March Fed easing, but we still expect the first cut in May.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Core inflation falling steadily across all three components.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Consumption is on track for another solid increase in Q1, but cashflow growth is slowing…
- Spending growth likely will moderate in the spring, but a serious weakening requires rising layoffs.
- Core inflation is slowing on all fronts; faster margin compression would intensify the downward pressure.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Inflation matters more than the GDP overshoot, and it looks great.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
