US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Samuel Tombs Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)
- We think the core PCE deflator rose by only 0.11% in November; the trend is slowing sharply.
- Consumers’ spending is still rising, but the rate of growth is moderating after the Q3 jump.
- Aircraft and autos likely lifted November orders, but expect a soft core.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Layoffs still very depressed, but people are finding it harder to secure new jobs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The latest WARN data suggest layoffs remain low, but seasonals will lift initial claims in the next few weeks…
- …And rising continuing claims suggest people who lose their jobs are taking longer to find new positions.
- The jump in December confidence tells us that people like cheaper gas and rising stocks; who knew?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
People really like a rising stock market and falling gas prices
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- FOMC speeches move markets, but they are not a reliable guide to what will happen in three months.
- The surge in November single-family starts is noise, not signal; expect a correction in December.
- People’s uneasiness over the labor market signals a gradually upward trend in unemployment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase signals December payroll growth of about 225K; no sign of further weakening yet.
- Lower rates are beginning to cheer homebuilders, who will gain further market share as home sales rise.
- Single-family construction is rebounding, fitfully, but the multi-family rollover has further to go.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed’s forecasts imply remarkable stability in GDP growth and unemployment for the next three years…
- …They are likely to be wrong, and the risks to their numbers for next year are mostly to the downside.
- Homebuilders’ sentiment likely is rebounding as mortgage rates drop, with more to come.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Margins have stopped rising, but yet to start falling, auto dealers excepted.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US