US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Global Weekly Monitor Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
- We think GDP rose at a 2.6% quarter-on-quarter pace in Q1, powered primarily by consumers’ spending.
- Data released before the GDP estimate next Thursday, however, could shift our forecast materially.
- Home sales likely still have further to fall in Q2, despite their big drop in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Ignore the fall in the LEI in March—Q1 GDP growth will be brisk—but it should become a better guide soon.
- Look out for an above-consensus rise in jobless claims today as Easter distortions unwind; the trend is rising.
- February’s surge in existing home sales looks like an anomaly; expect a plunge in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chair Powell signals that the Fed requires much more data to start easing soon; June odds down again.
- The widening spread between part-time and full-time job growth is an alarming signal for payrolls.
- The early Easter hit March housing starts but, in any event, a sustained recovery is some way off.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase data point to a mere 120K rise in private payrolls in April, but the range of possible prints is wide.
- Strong March retail sales and upward revisions mean Q1 consumption likely rose by more than 3%.
- The early Easter likely depressed housing starts in March, offsetting support from further mild weather.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Slowing wage gains, normalized supply chains, and a shrinking money supply will constrain inflation…
- …But anything can happen over periods as short as a few months, and the Fed is backward-looking.
- March core retail sales appear to have been soft, capping a sluggish first quarter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US