US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
- Easter data distortions ahead; lower claims numbers today will likely reflect tricky seasonal adjustment.
- Core durable goods orders are very likely to drop when Easter is in March, then rebound in April.
- We expect a pick-up in the March Chicago PMI, and look out for revisions to the Michigan sentiment data.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
THE LABOR MARKET IS ABOUT TO SLOW, SHARPLY…
- …THE FED WILL RESPOND, BUT WHEN?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Low income households now have a much smaller stock of real liquid assets than before Covid…
- The shortage of cash will crimp spending and push up delinquency rates on consumer credit instruments.
- Falling capex shipments point to an outright decline in Q1 equipment investment; Q2 perhaps a bit better?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Core durable goods orders likely remained weak in February, despite mild weather.
- Equipment investment likely rose in Q1 due to a rebound in heavy truck sales, but a full-year drop is still a solid bet.
- The Conference Board’s confidence index likely is still consistent with steady spending growth in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The March Philly Fed and S&P surveys suggest the manufacturing sector’s downturn is over...
- ...But ongoing inventory rundowns and depressed global demand point to only modest growth ahead.
- New home sales likely rose for a third straight month in February; homebuilders will hang on to market share.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Both federal and state/local government are set to make much smaller contributions to growth this year.
- S&L government housing construction will slow, and the surge in payrolls will moderate, likely quite soon.
- February’s jump in existing homes sales will not be sustained; mortgage demand remains very weak.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The FOMC stuck to its December forecast of 75bp easing this year; recent inflation data just a “bump”.
- Chair Powell sees no “cracks” in the labor market; the NFIB and WARN data tell a different story.
- Today’s existing home sales data are wild, but whatever they show, a real recovery is some way off.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The FOMC likely will stick to its December forecast of 75bp easing this year.
- FOMC members’ inflation forecasts probably will be little changed, despite recent data disappointment.
- Homebuilders are gaining market share, keeping single-family construction on an upward track.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase points to solid March job growth, but likely slower than in February…
- Either way, the outlook for the second quarter is materially weaker; hirings down, firings up.
- Housing construction is set to rise as homebuilders gain market share; is the multi-family slump over?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The shrinking stock of excess savings has exposed most households and small firms to the Fed’s hikes…
- Recent evidence of slowing growth is not yet definitive, but it has our attention.
- Nothing would shift market expectations of faster easing than a clear softening in payrolls; is it coming?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US