US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Global Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
- The Q1 data suggest upside risk to our 0.28% March core PCE forecast, but 0.3% rounded still looks likely.
- Q1 GDP growth was better beneath the hood; the headline was hit by a big foreign trade drag...
- ...But expect drags in Q2 from inventories and residential investment, as well as slowing consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Durable orders were stronger than we expected in March, but they still fell in Q1 as a whole.
- GDP likely rose by 2.6% in Q1; this week's data have triggered only marginal changes in our forecast.
- Time lags and generous seasonals mean today's initial claims data likely will be little changed, again.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- S&P's employment index has inaccurately pointed to sharp slowdowns in growth in payrolls before...
- ...but its grim message should be taken seriously now, given that it is echoed by the NFIB survey.
- Easter effects point to a downside surprise in durable goods orders ex-transportation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- S&P's PMI is too unreliable a guide to GDP to be useful, but its soft inflation signal should be taken seriously.
- Annual retail sales revisions could have significant implications for consumption growth in Q1.
- New home sales probably rose in March, capping a strong quarter for residential investment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We think GDP rose at a 2.6% quarter-on-quarter pace in Q1, powered primarily by consumers’ spending.
- Data released before the GDP estimate next Thursday, however, could shift our forecast materially.
- Home sales likely still have further to fall in Q2, despite their big drop in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Ignore the fall in the LEI in March—Q1 GDP growth will be brisk—but it should become a better guide soon.
- Look out for an above-consensus rise in jobless claims today as Easter distortions unwind; the trend is rising.
- February’s surge in existing home sales looks like an anomaly; expect a plunge in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chair Powell signals that the Fed requires much more data to start easing soon; June odds down again.
- The widening spread between part-time and full-time job growth is an alarming signal for payrolls.
- The early Easter hit March housing starts but, in any event, a sustained recovery is some way off.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase data point to a mere 120K rise in private payrolls in April, but the range of possible prints is wide.
- Strong March retail sales and upward revisions mean Q1 consumption likely rose by more than 3%.
- The early Easter likely depressed housing starts in March, offsetting support from further mild weather.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- March CPI and PPI data point to a 0.3% rise in the core PCE deflator, with an outside chance of a 0.2% print.
- Personal tax refunds so far in 2024 are little changed compared to last year, but that could still change.
- Higher gas prices probably mean a small fall in the Michigan sentiment survey from its recent highs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Almost half of the rise in March core CPI services ex-rent prices was due to a wild jump in auto insurance.
- We’re raising our near-term forecasts for rents and hospital services prices, but retaining our optimistic outlook.
- Core PPI inflation should be depressed by falling margins, driven by slowing growth in core retail sales.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The balance of risks points to a decent chance of a 0.2% core CPI print for March, a tenth below consensus.
- Zillow data signal a modest rise in primary rent; OER is wild but likely won’t rise much faster than primary rents.
- Both used vehicle and hotel room prices probably fell in March; the early Easter might depress goods prices too.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Revisions between the first and third payroll estimate have become bigger and increasingly negative.
- Under pressure SMEs likely are under-represented in the first estimate; expect larger downward revisions in Q2.
- We expect another fall in the NFIB index in March, as small businesses remain under pressure.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Homebase jobs data signal March strength; we expect 225K headline payrolls and 175K private…
- ...But the NFIB survey’s hiring intentions measure points to much weaker numbers in Q2.
- Low snow cover likely boosted hours worked and depressed AHE, but the Fed only cares about the ECI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The plunge in ISM services prices paid to a four-year low points to much slower core services inflation.
- Light vehicle sales slumped in Q1, dragging on overall consumption growth.
- Initial jobless claims likely rose modestly last week, but a sharp increase is likely in the coming months.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Expect little change in the ISM services index today; either way, it’s a poor guide to services spending.
- The ADP employment report is hopelessly unreliable; take it seriously at your peril.
- The JOLTS quit rate is consistent with much weaker wage growth across the spring and summer, at least.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The JOLTS quit rate flagged the surge in wages during the Great Rehiring. It now points to a sharp slowdown.
- Vehicle sales were probably little changed in March, suggesting a drag on Q1 consumption growth.
- A nascent recovery in manufacturing is finding its feet, but core goods prices look set to continue falling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US