Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

26 June 2024 US Monitor Services sector hiring holding up for now, but inflation likely to fall sharply

  • The latest services surveys point to lower underlying inflation and a further slowdown in wage growth. 
  • New home sales probably dipped in May, reflecting the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year. 
  • Conference Board confidence data signal slower spending growth and rising unemployment.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

25 June 2024 US Monitor Trebling of shipping costs likely to add 0.04pp at most to core PCE inflation

  • Shipping costs have rocketed, but they likely will add less than 0.1pp to core PCE inflation next year.
  • The spike in shipping costs probably will unwind after tariff-related risks have abated. 
  • Consumer confidence likely dropped in June, with adverse implications for consumption growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, May

New mortgage rates still far too high for transactions to recover

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

24 June 2024 US Monitor Will lower rates be enough for stocks if margins adjust sharply downwards?

  • Stocks will like Fed easing, but will be less enamored of a potentially steep drop in gross margins.
  • Existing home sales fell a bit further in May and a sustained recovery looks a long way off.
  • The pick-up in the employment index of S&P Global PMI survey in June is probably a red herring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

21 June 2024 US Monitor Hirings down, firings up; the warning signs for the labor market are clear

  • Falling hirings and rising firings are a toxic combination; job growth looks set to slow sharply.
  • May building permits suggest residential construction spending is falling at a 10% annualized pace. 
  • Existing home sales likely were unchanged in May; Fed rate cuts will facilitate only a sluggish recovery.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

20 June 2024 US Monitor Official rent inflation will slow much further, lagging private measures

  • Rent rises for new tenants have slowed sharply; the feared catch-up in CPI rent inflation is unlikely.
  • We expect annualized CPI housing inflation to slow to 3-to-4% over the next few quarters.
  • Q2 consumption is on course for a modest 2%, similar to Q1, after May's lacklustre retail sales data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

18 June 2024 US Monitor Homebase data consistent with the smallest rise in payrolls since October

  • Our Homebase model points to a mere 125K rise in private payrolls in June, the least since October.
  • Retail sales likely recovered in May from a subpar April, but the trend looks less robust.
  • Industrial production likely picked up in May; surveys have nudged up and hours worked have risen.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

17 June 2024 US Monitor The FOMC is too optimistic with its unemployment forecast

  • The Fed likely will have to revise up its unemployment forecast in September; the trend is rising.
  • Consumers’ confidence fell again in June, despite lower gas prices and a booming stock market.
  • The Empire State survey will help to assess the size of the shipping cost shock coming manufacturers’ way.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US PPI, May 2024

May core PCE likely rose just 0.11%, well below the Fed’s expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

14 June 2024 US Monitor US May core PCE to undershoot the 2024 average run rate expected by the Fed

  • The CPI and PPI data imply that the core PCE deflator rose by just 0.11% in May…
  • …Below the 0.19% average run rate forecast by the Fed; September’s SEP update will support a rate cut.
  • The Michigan sentiment index probably bounced this month, but job loss worries seem to be mounting.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US PPI, June 2024

June core PCE likely rose just 0.15%; the Fed can prepare the ground for a September rate cut.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US CPI, May

Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

13 June 2024 US Monitor The Fed's hawkish dotplot is likely to have a short shelf life

  • The Fed’s hawkish dotplot is likely to have a short shelf life; the data will force faster easing than they expect.
  • The May core CPI slowdown was deep-rooted; we expect just 0.20% average gains through year-end.
  •  CPI data signal a 0.16% rise in the core PCE deflator, but we will finalize our estimate after today’s PPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

12 June 2024 US Monitor The FOMC will raise its 2024 inflation forecasts, and likely drop one easing

  • The high core PCE prints in Q1 will force the Fed to revise up its Q4 forecast, and cut one easing.
  • A jump in used car and vehicle insurance prices probably drove a 0.3% increase in the May core CPI...
  • ...But core services CPI inflation likely slowed further, indicating monetary policy is tight enough.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

11 June 2024 US Monitor Inflation and Wage Expectations are no barrier to Fed easing

  • The NY Fed survey shows wage growth and long-run inflation expectations are in line with the 2010s. 
  • People plan to spend 5% more over the next year, but expectations correlate poorly with actual spending.
  • Tight credit conditions are weighing heavily on small firms, an ominous sign for the economy at large.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

10 June 2024 US Monitor Core September easing remains a decent base case, despite May payrolls

  • The initial estimate of a brisk 272K rise in May payrolls likely will be revised down, given many weak indicators.
  • The case for firms to hoard staff is weakening as the unemployment rate grinds higher.
  • The unwinding of a calendar quirk drove May’s jump in average hourly earnings; the trend still is slowing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

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