Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

21 August 2024 US Monitor The labor market slowdown will likely continue, even as claims drop back

  • Leading indicators suggest that the upturn in initial claims in recent months is petering out.
  • But the slowdown in employment growth will likely continue, as companies continue to reduce hiring. 
  • Benchmark payroll revisions are unforecastable, but have been small in recent years.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

20 August 2024 US Monitor Homebase points to strong August payrolls, but we're looking elsewhere

  • Our Homebase model points to a 250K jump in August private payrolls, which looks implausible.
  • Other labor market indicators are far less upbeat; we have pencilled in an increase of 125K.
  • We expect a meagre rise in government payrolls this month, and see a sharp slowdown ahead. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

19 August 2024 US Monitor Beryl crushed July housing starts, but the August rebound won't last

  • July’s drop in single-family starts was concentrated in the South, probably a hit from Hurricane Beryl...
  • ..Still, the overhang of new home inventory points to a downturn in residential construction.
  • Consumers’ confidence has picked up despite the stock market dip, pointing to solid spending growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims, August 10

 Weekly data are noisy; the underlying trend is still deteriorating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US industrial production, July

The underlying trend still looks flat; expect continued stagnation ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US CPI, July

Another month of “good data”, implying a 0.13% core PCE print.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

16 August 2024 US Monitor Recent strength in retail sales is unlikely to last much longer

  • Retail sales were strong in July, but weak consumer fundamentals still point to a slowdown ahead.
  • The fall in initial claims distracts from the slowly rising trend; expect higher prints ahead. 
  • We think housing starts dipped in July, as rising inventory drove a drop in single-family construction.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

15 August 2024 US Monitor CPI data check the easing box, but hawks can point to a few red flags

  • The July CPI and PPI data collectively point to a mere 0.13% increase in the core PCE deflator...
  • ...But seasonal adjustment now might be flattering the data; the dip in CPI hospital prices will unwind.
  • We look today for a fall in July manufacturing output and a slight increase in initial jobless claims.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

14 August 2024 US Monitor PPI data are consistent with a small rise in the July core PCE deflator

  • PCE-relevant components of the PPI collectively rose in July at the slowest rate for 11 months. 
  • Hospital services prices will rebound soon, but core goods prices will drop as retailers’ margins contract.
  • We look for a weak July retail sales report Thursday, with the control measure falling by 0.3%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

13 August 2024 US Monitor July PPI data likely to rewrite the story on gross margins

  • July PPI data likely to reverse to June’s jump in retailers’ gross margins; a profit squeeze lies ahead.
  • The NFIB survey likely will show small firms remain under intense pressure from high interest rates.
  • Inflation expectations are trending down, but the plunge in the NY Fed’s three-year measure is noise.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

12 August 2024 US Monitor July core CPI data to leave the door wide open to rapid Fed easing

  • We look for a 0.2% increase in the July core CPI, with the risks tilted towards a lower print.
  • Prices for hotels and air travel likely continued to fall; June’s small rise in rents probably was repeated.
  • Core goods prices likely edged down again, driven by further falls in both new and used vehicle prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

US Jobless Claims

Underlying claims rising only slowly for now, but expect a faster deterioration ahead. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

9 August 2024 US Monitor Initial GDP data often miss the start of recessions; watch payrolls instead

  • The first estimate of GDP growth was positive at the start of the last three normal recessions...  
  • ...Payrolls provided a much better near-real time guide; they are not flashing bright red, for now.  
  • Initial claims still point to a resilient economy, but a run of higher prints this autumn remains likely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

8 August 2024 US Monitor How to separate the signal from the noise in today's jobless claims report

  • We look for a decline in initial claims to 235K, from 249K, as the boost from Hurricane Beryl wears off...
  • ...The trend in initial claims is rising, but daily Homebase employment data present no cause for panic. 
  • The latest plunge in Treasury yields likely will support housing market activity only marginally.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

7 August 2024 US Monitor Fall in stock prices to realign growth in consumers' spending with incomes

  • A 5% stock price fall usually knocks confidence enough to lower real consumer spending growth by about 0.5pp.
  • Associated falls in interest rates will do less than usual to bolster confidence, as households are less indebted.  
  • Bank lending standards are now tightening at a slower pace, but they remain very restrictive. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

6 August 2024 US Monitor Emergency Fed action is an outside bet, but markets can force their hand

  • Economic and market conditions usually have been worse than now to trigger an emergency Fed meeting...
  • ...But rates are far above neutral and the next meeting is six weeks out; Mr. Powell will act if markets deteriorate.
  • July’s ISM services survey kept recession fears at bay, but it still strongly supports the case for Fed easing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Employment Report, July

This week’s Fed inaction was a mistake; the case for 50bp in September is strong. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

5 August 2024 US Monitor Labor market weakening is gathering speed; decisive Fed easing is coming

  • The deep-rooted weakness in July’s labor market data signals that the Fed has waited too long to ease.
  • Increases in the unemployment rate usually gather self-reinforcing momentum once they exceed 0.5pp.
  • We maintain our long-held call for 125bp of Fed easing this year; it’s 50/50 whether they begin with 50bp.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

2 August 2024 US Monitor Payrolls are less predictable in July, but a below-consensus print is a good bet

  • Homebase data are less useful than usual in July, but business surveys point to sluggish growth in payrolls. 
  • We see an even chance of the Sahm rule being triggered and expect a below-trend 0.2% increase in AHE.
  • Growth in unit labor costs has slowed to well below 2%, pointing to further falls in core inflation ahead.  

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

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