Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

5 April 2024 US Monitor Expect more solid jobs data today, but trouble is brewing for Q2

  • The Homebase jobs data signal March strength; we expect 225K headline payrolls and 175K private…
  • ...But the NFIB survey’s hiring intentions measure points to much weaker numbers in Q2.
  • Low snow cover likely boosted hours worked and depressed AHE, but the Fed only cares about the ECI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

4 April 2024 US Monitor ISM report brings more good news on services inflation

  • The plunge in ISM services prices paid to a four-year low points to much slower core services inflation. 
  • Light vehicle sales slumped in Q1, dragging on overall consumption growth.
  • Initial jobless claims likely rose modestly last week, but a sharp increase is likely in the coming months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

3 April 2024 US Monitor ISM services and ADP employment reports are both deeply unreliable

  • Expect little change in the ISM services index today; either way, it’s a poor guide to services spending. 
  • The ADP employment report is hopelessly unreliable; take it seriously at your peril.
  • The JOLTS quit rate is consistent with much weaker wage growth across the spring and summer, at least.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

2 April 2024 US Monitor Ignore JOLTS job openings, but pay attention to the quits rate

  • The JOLTS quit rate flagged the surge in wages during the Great Rehiring. It now points to a sharp slowdown. 
  • Vehicle sales were probably little changed in March, suggesting a drag on Q1 consumption growth. 
  • A nascent recovery in manufacturing is finding its feet, but core goods prices look set to continue falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

1 April 2024 US Monitor Core PCE back on track following the January jump

  • February’s subdued core PCE price data support the idea that January’s spike was a one-time fluke.
  • Consumption is on track for a 2% gain in Q1, down from 3.3% in Q4, and real income growth is slowing
  • A modest uptick in ISM manufacturing is a decent bet, but the sector remains weak.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,