Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Weekly Monitor Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Gabriella Dickens Samuel Tombs

8 December 2025 US Monitor Consumer resilience is ebbing as year-end approaches

  • Spending rose by 2.7% in Q3, but the stagnation in September likely foreshadows a very weak Q4.
  • Real incomes are barely rising, and many near-real time indicators point to a sharp slowdown in growth.
  • Q1 likely will be weak too, but bumper tax refunds and a pick-up in hiring will support a Q2 revival.
Samuel TombsUS

1 December 2025 US Monitor Why are tariff revenues falling short of everyone's projections?

  • The average effective tariff rate is currently just 12%, far short of the near-20% widely expected in spring.
  • China imports have dived; more imports than expected from Canada and Mexico are USMCA-compliant.
  • The plunge in the Cass Freight Index looks alarming, but it probably is overstating weakness in industry.
Samuel TombsUS
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U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,