US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Global Daily Monitor Datanotes
New residential construction likely to flatline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Sentiment improving, but mortgage rates remain too high for demand to recover materially.
Samuel TombsUS
Bouncing back after a poor H1, but Q3’s momentum will not be sustained.
Samuel TombsUS
Boeing strike weighs on an already struggling sector.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Helene and strikes obscure the underlying trend.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Real goods spending likely leapt by 6.3% in Q3, the most for six quarters, but slower growth beckons.
- Labor income growth is slowing, while savings income will fall; hurricanes will not boost overall sales.
- The latest jobless claims data are still consistent with a big hit to October NFP from strikes and hurricanes.
Samuel TombsUS
- Weak Visa spending data and falling hours worked signal unchanged headline September retail sales.
- The Boeing strike and Hurricane Helene likely pushed up jobless claims again last week.
- Strikes at Boeing probably also weighed heavily on manufacturing output in September.
Samuel TombsUS
- Healthcare and education payrolls together are nearly one million below their pre-Covid trend path...
- ...But healthcare job postings have fallen sharply; S&L governments lack funds to hire many more teachers.
- Consumers perceive the highest chance of missing a debt payment since April 2020; lenders will take note.
Samuel TombsUS
Consumers remain relatively upbeat.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consistent with a 0.2% core PCE print; the momentum was in non-PCE components.
Samuel TombsUS
Fed in little hurry to slash rates, for now.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The CPI points to a benign 0.2% rise in the core PCE deflator; the strength was in non-PCE components.
- The rise in import prices earlier this year lifted core goods prices, but the outlook for both is fine.
- Services disinflation continues; a further fall in wage growth in 2025 will return overall core inflation to 2%.
Samuel TombsUS
- Some FOMC participants preferred a 25bp move last month, suggesting a gradual approach for now...
- ...But worse data in the coming months probably will push the Fed to ease rapidly by the turn of the year.
- Hurricanes Helene and Milton will make the data hard to read, but are unlikely to change Fed policy.
Samuel TombsUS
Tight credit still weighing heavily on small companies.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The FOMC minutes probably will show a consensus behind gradual and data-dependent rate cuts.
- Recent data suggest a 25bp move is most likely in November, but we see sharper cuts further ahead.
- Credit conditions tightened for small companies in September, highlighting monetary policy’s long lags.
Samuel TombsUS
- Upside risk for the September core CPI from sources including hotel room rates and auto insurance.
- Tickets for sports event probably leapt too; NFL admission costs 9% more this season.
- JD Power data point to rising prices for used autos; import prices flag a break from core goods deflation.
Samuel TombsUS
Low response rate suggests jump in payrolls very likely to be revised away.
Samuel TombsUS
Still consistent with further falls in services inflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Boosted marginally by Boeing; expect a further uplift from Hurricane Helene ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
