PM Datanote: Housing Starts, March 2024

Large fall is likely an Easter timing quirk; the trend still looks flat.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

17 April 2024 US Monitor Chair Powell signals a longer wait, raising the risk of a policy mistake

• Chair Powell signals that the Fed requires much more data to start easing soon; June odds down again.
• The widening spread between part-time and full-time job growth is an alarming signal for payrolls.
• The early Easter hit March housing starts but, in any event, a sustained recovery is some way off.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Index, April

Limited inventory of existing homes continues to help homebuilders.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, March

Consumption is still booming...for now.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Empire State Survey: Too volatile to make us fear a renewed downturn in manufacturing

Too volatile to make us fear a renewed downturn in manufacturing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

16 April 2024 US Monitor Homebase model points to smallest increase in payrolls since Covid

• Homebase data point to a mere 120K rise in private payrolls in April, but the range of possible prints is wide.
• Strong March retail sales and upward revisions mean Q1 consumption likely rose by more than 3%.
• The early Easter likely depressed housing starts in March, offsetting support from further mild weather.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, April prelim

Still high, but likely peaked

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US